22. Variant of Cash-in-Advance Model
22. 现金先行模型的变体
改变第 21 节经典现金先行模型设定的方式有多种,例如改变模型的时序。本节聚焦于一个放松了 (21.7) 现金先行约束、但引入了"不用现金所致的其他交易成本"的模型。
22.1 设定
- 四类主体:家庭、银行、企业、政府。
- 一种商品,由资本与劳动生产。
- 三种支付手段:
- 现金(cash):发生最频繁(交易次数最多);用于小额(小额指该类每笔交易的支付金额小)交易。这里"交易量(volume)"等同于"交易规模(size)",即一笔特定交易的支付金额。
- 银行卡(card):发生较不频繁(交易次数中等);用于中额交易。
- 电子交易(electronic):发生最不频繁(交易次数最少);用于大额交易。
- 家庭:
- 偏好由效用函数 \(u(c)\) 表示,\(c\) 是短期内不可改变的消费水平,即设家庭每期(长度 \(\tau\))作一次决策;\(\rho\) 是效用贴现参数;若消费水平选为 \(c\),则该短期内效用的现值为
$$ \int_0^{\tau}e^{-\rho t}u(c)\,dt=-\frac{1}{\rho}e^{-\rho t}u(c)\Big|_0^{\tau}=\frac{1}{\rho}\big(1-e^{-\rho\tau}\big)u(c) $$
- 对购买的**相对规模**有固定分布 \(G(z)\)(分布对相对规模固定,而非绝对规模,从而允许绝对交易量随不同消费水平调整):
- 该分布**不含任何随机成分**;它只表示各规模区间内交易所占的比例,是**确定性**的;
- \(G(z)\) 有密度函数 \(g(z)\):\(z\) 是一笔交易的相对量(或规模),\(g(z)\) 对"发生一笔规模为 \(z\) 的交易"赋予正密度;这密度只是各规模处购买的比例,并非概率密度,问题是确定性而非随机的;之所以定义密度,只因模型以连续方式设立。
- 定义相对量 \(z\) 及以下的购买的**累计相对量** \(\tilde G(z)\),即所有单笔相对量不超过 \(z\) 的交易的相对量之和:
$$ \tilde G(z)=\int_0^z \zeta\cdot g(\zeta)\,d\zeta $$
- 令 \(\nu=\lim_{z\to\infty}\tilde G(z)\) 为所有可能购买的总相对量。
- 令 \(\Omega(z)\) 表示单笔相对量不超过 \(z\) 的交易所贡献的总相对量占比,则
$$ \Omega(z)=\frac{\tilde G(z)}{\nu} $$
- 令 \(n^h\) 为家庭的总交易次数:
- 假设消费水平 \(c\) 的变动**只**通过调整交易的绝对规模(集约边际,intensive margin)实现,而非通过调整总交易次数(粗放边际,extensive margin);
- 故总交易次数 \(n^h\) 不随 \(c\) 变化,且这 \(n^h\) 笔交易的相对量分布固定。
22.2 家庭问题
22.2.1 待作的决策
家庭为不同购买选择支付手段。家庭将选两个阈值,把相对量轴切成三段,使各段内的交易采用不同支付手段。各支付方式的特征(时间成本指以特定支付方式完成一笔交易所花的时间,以时间计,除非乘以工资率,否则不是放弃的工资;流动性需求指须以现金形式持有、从而不能赚取利息的资产比例):
- 现金:无时间成本 \(k^c=0\);最高流动性需求 \(\theta^c=1\)。
- 银行卡:中等时间成本(\(0=k^c
- 电子支付:最高时间成本 \(k^e>k^d>k^c=0\);最低流动性需求 \(0<\theta^e<\theta^d<\theta^c=1\)。
注记 22.1 假设 \(k^e>k^d>k^c=0\) 与 \(0<\theta^e<\theta^d<\theta^c=1\) 是合理的:现金支付容易、不费时间,但要求该类资产的全部都不赚利息;银行卡支付费一点时间,但其中不要求保持流动的部分可赚利息;电子支付最费力,但因其可短时间内变现,要求保持流动的比例最低。
我们的假设是:三类中的流动性资产都赚零利息,而银行卡与电子支付账户中的非流动性资产赚相同的名义利率 \(i\)。三类资产的差别在于流动性资产与非流动性资产的占比。
注意时间成本只与各支付方式的交易次数相关,与每笔交易的个体规模无关。所以:
- 高频、低个体规模的交易,家庭用现金;
- 低频、高个体规模的交易,家庭用电子支付;
- 介于其间的交易,家庭用银行卡。
因此,家庭不必为每笔交易单独决策支付方式,而是确定两个相对量阈值 \(\gamma\) 与 \(\delta\)(\(0<\gamma<\delta\)),使得:
- 若交易相对规模低于 \(\gamma\),家庭用现金;
- 若交易相对规模介于 \(\gamma\) 与 \(\delta\),家庭用银行卡;
- 若交易相对规模高于 \(\delta\),家庭用电子支付。
22.2.2 流动性需求与总时间成本
定义总流动性需求为(因 \(\theta^c=1\))
$$ L^h(\gamma,\delta)=\Omega(\gamma)\cdot\theta^c+[\Omega(\delta)-\Omega(\gamma)]\cdot\theta^d+[1-\Omega(\delta)]\cdot\theta^e=\Omega(\gamma)+[\Omega(\delta)-\Omega(\gamma)]\cdot\theta^d+[1-\Omega(\delta)]\cdot\theta^e \tag{22.1} $$
- 由 (22.1) 的定义,\(L^h(\gamma,\delta)\) 是须由流动性资产(即现金,不能赚利息)支付的总绝对交易量占比。
- 故 \(P\,c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\) 是现金支付总额,\(P\,c\,(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\) 是付息资产支付总额,\(P\) 为消费品名义价格。
定义总时间成本为(因 \(k^c=0\))
$$ T^h(\gamma,\delta)=G(\gamma)\cdot k^c+[G(\delta)-G(\gamma)]\cdot k^d+[1-G(\delta)]\cdot k^e=[G(\delta)-G(\gamma)]\cdot k^d+[1-G(\delta)]\cdot k^e \tag{22.2} $$
- 由 (22.2) 的定义,\(T^h(\gamma,\delta)\) 是一笔交易的时间成本。
- 故 \(n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta)\) 是 \(n^h\) 笔购买上的总时间花费。
22.2.3 家庭贝尔曼方程
$$ V(A_0;P_0)=\max_{M_0,\gamma,\delta,\tau,c}\left\{\frac{1}{\rho}\big(1-e^{-\rho\tau}\big)u(c)+e^{-\rho\tau}V(A';P_0)\right\} \tag{22.3} $$
$$ \text{s.t.}\quad c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\cdot\frac{1}{\pi}\big(e^{\pi\tau}-1\big)\le M_0 \tag{22.4} $$
其中 \(M_0\) 是本期(长度 \(\tau\))所选的现金先行货币,\(\pi\) 是(恒定的)货币供给增长率,从而也是消费品价格增长率(均衡中由数量论保证)。
(22.4) 的推导 $$ > \int_0^{\tau}c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\,P_0\,e^{\pi t}\,dt=c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\,P_0\cdot\frac{1}{\pi}\big(e^{\pi\tau}-1\big) > $$
资产运动律为(三行分别为:结转现金、储蓄、净累计工资):
$$ A'=\underbrace{\left[M_0-c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\,P_0\cdot\frac{1}{\pi}\big(e^{\pi\tau}-1\big)\right]}_{\text{cash left over}} \tag{22.5} $$
$$ +\underbrace{e^{i\tau}\big(A_0-M_0-P_0 w\nu\phi\big)}_{\text{saving}} \tag{22.6} $$
$$ +\underbrace{\frac{e^{\pi\tau}-e^{i\tau}}{\pi-i}P_0\big[w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\big]}_{\text{net accumulated wage}} \tag{22.7} $$
其中 \(i\) 是名义利率,\(w\) 是实际工资,\(f\) 是政府征收的、以实际消费品计的总额税,\(\phi\) 是去银行取现一趟所花时间。所以:
- 行 (22.5) 是购买中未用尽、结转的现金,赚零名义利息;
- 行 (22.6),即期初资产 \(A_0\) 减去须持有的现金 \(M_0\)、再减去去银行的成本 \(P_0 w\nu\phi\),是在整个长度 \(\tau\) 内不被动用的储蓄;
- 行 (22.7) 是累计的劳动收入(扣除实际税与非现金支付的消费实际支出)的总名义价值:
- 注意家庭在每个无穷小时间段用 \((1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))\) 比例的时间工作,以支付总额税与消费;
- 故 \(w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\) 是在无穷小时间段内、支付税与(非现金部分)消费后待累计的实际净劳动收入,记作 \(acc\):
$$ acc=w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta)) $$
- 这部分资产以名义形式累计,既有名义利率回报又面临价格上涨。
(22.7) 法则的推导 $$ > \begin{aligned} > \int_0^{\tau}(acc\cdot P_0)\,e^{i(\tau-t)}e^{\pi t}\,dt&=(acc\cdot P_0)\,e^{i\tau}\int_0^{\tau}e^{(\pi-i)t}\,dt\\ > &=(acc\cdot P_0)\,e^{i\tau}\cdot\frac{e^{(\pi-i)\tau}-1}{\pi-i}\\ > &=\frac{e^{\pi\tau}-e^{i\tau}}{\pi-i}\,P_0\big[w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\big] > \end{aligned} > $$
引理 22.1 家庭的价值函数是货币中性的,即 \(V(A;P)\) 关于 \((A,P)\) 零次齐次。
证明 该引理成立是因为整个问题(贝尔曼方程 (22.3) 与现金先行约束 (22.4))关于 \((A,P,M)\) 零次齐次——问题从未指定现金与资产的单位。家庭的价值以实际消费产生的效用衡量,而每个时点的实际消费选择不是货币与资产单位的函数,故可任意选取整个问题的资产与货币单位(不能事后改变单位)为千或百等,都不会改变各时点的最优消费选择。\(\blacksquare\)
至此我们已得到贝尔曼方程 (22.3)、CIA 约束 (22.4) 与资产运动律 (22.5)、(22.6)、(22.7),其余分析可与第 21 节类似进行,只是本模型中一切都是确定性的。
注记 22.2 在此变体模型中,我们选择 \(\gamma\) 与 \(\delta\) 实际上是在"用现金支付"与"用付息资产支付"之间作选择。我们放松了"全部用现金"的约束,却引入了非现金支付的新成本:时间成本及其所对应的放弃的实际工资。所以这里的较量是在放弃的利息(现金支付的成本)与放弃的工资(非现金支付的成本)之间进行。
22. Variant of Cash-in-Advance Model
There could be multiple ways to alter the set-up in classic Cash-in-Advance model in section 21, such as changing the timing of the model. In this section, we are focusing on the model that relaxes the CIA constraint in (21.7) but introduces other costs of transactions induced by not using cash.
22.1 Set-up
- Four types of agents in this model: household, bank, firms, and government.
- One good produced by capital and labor.
- Three means of payments:
- cash: happens most frequently (highest number of transactions); used for small (small volume means each single transaction of this type involves small amount of payment) volume transaction. Here "volume" of a transaction is the same as the "size" of a transaction, which means the amount of payment for one particular transaction.
- card: happens less frequently (medium number of transactions); used for medium volume transaction.
- electronic transactions: happens least frequently (least number of transactions); used for large volume transaction.
- Household:
- has preferences represented by utility function \(u(c)\) where \(c\) is the consumption level that cannot be changed for a short period of time, i.e. suppose household makes decision once in each period with length \(\tau\); \(\rho\) is the discounting parameter for utility; if the consumption level is chosen as \(c\), then the present value of utility in that short period is
$$ \int_0^{\tau}e^{-\rho t}u(c)\,dt=-\frac{1}{\rho}e^{-\rho t}u(c)\Big|_0^{\tau}=\frac{1}{\rho}\big(1-e^{-\rho\tau}\big)u(c) $$
- has fixed distribution \(G(z)\) for the relative size of purchases (here the distribution is fixed for the relative size, not the absolute size, so we are allowing the absolute volume to adjust for different consumption levels):
- here the distribution doesn't embed any stochastic component. Instead, the distribution simply means the fraction of transactions in each size range, which is deterministic;
- \(G(z)\) has density function \(g(z)\): \(z\) is the relative volume (or size) of a transaction; \(g(z)\) assigns positive density to having a transaction of volume \(z\); again, this density is just the fraction of purchases at each volume, not a probability density, and the problem is deterministic, not stochastic; we define density only because this model is set up in a continuous fashion.
- we can define sum relative volume of purchases of relative volume (or size) \(z\) or less, which is \(\tilde G(z)\), the added up relative volume of all transactions whose single relative volume is less or equal to \(z\), i.e.
$$ \tilde G(z)=\int_0^z \zeta\cdot g(\zeta)\,d\zeta $$
- Let \(\nu=\lim_{z\to\infty}\tilde G(z)\) be the total relative volume of all possible purchases.
- Let \(\Omega(z)\) denote the fraction of total relative volume contributed by transactions whose individual relative volume is equal to or less than \(z\), then
$$ \Omega(z)=\frac{\tilde G(z)}{\nu} $$
- Let \(n^h\) be the total number of transactions for the household:
- we assume that alternations in consumption level \(c\) are carried out only by adjusting the absolute size of transactions (intensive margin), not by adjusting the total number of transactions (extensive margin);
- so, the total number of transactions \(n^h\) is not varying with \(c\), and the relative volume distribution of those \(n^h\) transactions is fixed.
22.2 Household's problem
22.2.1 Decisions to be made
The household will be choosing the means of payment for different purchases. In particular, the household will choose two thresholds to cut the relative volume axis into three segments such that each transaction in segment take different means of payment. The characteristics of each payment method (time cost is the time spent on carrying out the transaction by a particular payment method, in terms of time, not forgone wages unless multiplied with wage rate; liquidity requirement is defined as the fraction that needs to be held liquid as cash so that this part of asset cannot earn interest):
- Cash: No time cost \(k^c=0\); highest liquidity requirement \(\theta^c=1\).
- Card: medium time cost (\(0=k^c
- Electronic payment: highest time cost \(k^e>k^d>k^c=0\); lowest liquidity requirement \(0<\theta^e<\theta^d<\theta^c=1\).
Remark 22.1 The assumption that \(k^e>k^d>k^c=0\) and \(0<\theta^e<\theta^d<\theta^c=1\) is reasonable. Cash payment is easy and takes no effort in terms of time, but it requires that the full percentage of asset in this type is not earning interest. Payment by bank cards require a little bit effort in terms of time, but can earn interest for the part of the asset in this type that is not required to be liquid. Electronic payment requires most effort to carry out, but since it can become liquid with short notice, it requires lowest percentage to be liquid.
Our assumption is that liquid assets in all three types earn zero interest, and non-liquid assets both in card and in electronic payment account earn the same nominal interest with rate \(i\). Three types of assets differ in the share of liquid and non-liquid assets.
Note that the time cost is only associated with the number of transactions for each payment method, not the individual volume of each transaction. So,
- for transactions with high frequency and low individual size, household would use cash;
- for transactions with low frequency and high individual size, household would use electronic payment;
- for transactions in between, household would use card.
Therefore, instead of making decisions of payment method for each individual transaction, household determines two threshold of relative volume \(\gamma\) and \(\delta\) (\(0<\gamma<\delta\)) such that
- household use cash if the transaction's relative size is below \(\gamma\);
- household use card if the transaction's relative size is between \(\gamma\) and \(\delta\);
- household use electronic payment if the transaction's relative size is over \(\delta\).
22.2.2 Liquidity requirement and total time cost
Define the total liquidity requirement by (since \(\theta^c=1\))
$$ L^h(\gamma,\delta)=\Omega(\gamma)\cdot\theta^c+[\Omega(\delta)-\Omega(\gamma)]\cdot\theta^d+[1-\Omega(\delta)]\cdot\theta^e=\Omega(\gamma)+[\Omega(\delta)-\Omega(\gamma)]\cdot\theta^d+[1-\Omega(\delta)]\cdot\theta^e \tag{22.1} $$
- By definition in (22.1), \(L^h(\gamma,\delta)\) is the fraction of total absolute transaction volume to be made by liquid asset (i.e. cash) that cannot earn interest.
- So, \(P\,c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\) is the total payment by cash, and \(P\,c\,(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\) is total payment by interest-bearing asset, where \(P\) is the nominal price of consumption good.
Define the total time cost by (since \(k^c=0\))
$$ T^h(\gamma,\delta)=G(\gamma)\cdot k^c+[G(\delta)-G(\gamma)]\cdot k^d+[1-G(\delta)]\cdot k^e=[G(\delta)-G(\gamma)]\cdot k^d+[1-G(\delta)]\cdot k^e \tag{22.2} $$
- By definition in (22.2), \(T^h(\gamma,\delta)\) is the time cost of one transaction.
- So, \(n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta)\) is the total time spending on \(n^h\) purchases.
22.2.3 Household Bellman equation
$$ V(A_0;P_0)=\max_{M_0,\gamma,\delta,\tau,c}\left\{\frac{1}{\rho}\big(1-e^{-\rho\tau}\big)u(c)+e^{-\rho\tau}V(A';P_0)\right\} \tag{22.3} $$
$$ \text{s.t.}\quad c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\cdot\frac{1}{\pi}\big(e^{\pi\tau}-1\big)\le M_0 \tag{22.4} $$
where \(M_0\) is the cash-in-advance money chosen for this period with length \(\tau\), and \(\pi\) is the (constant) rate of increase in money supply and thus rate of increase in consumption good price (by Quantity Theorem in equilibrium).
Derivation of (22.4) $$ > \int_0^{\tau}c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\,P_0\,e^{\pi t}\,dt=c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\,P_0\cdot\frac{1}{\pi}\big(e^{\pi\tau}-1\big) > $$
The law of motion of asset is (the three lines are: cash left over, saving, net accumulated wage respectively):
$$ A'=\underbrace{\left[M_0-c\,L^h(\gamma,\delta)\,P_0\cdot\frac{1}{\pi}\big(e^{\pi\tau}-1\big)\right]}_{\text{cash left over}} \tag{22.5} $$
$$ +\underbrace{e^{i\tau}\big(A_0-M_0-P_0 w\nu\phi\big)}_{\text{saving}} \tag{22.6} $$
$$ +\underbrace{\frac{e^{\pi\tau}-e^{i\tau}}{\pi-i}P_0\big[w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\big]}_{\text{net accumulated wage}} \tag{22.7} $$
where \(i\) is the nominal interest rate, \(w\) is the real wage and \(f\) is the real lump-sum tax (levied by government) in terms of real consumption good, \(\phi\) is the time spent on a trip to bank to withdraw cash. So,
- line (22.5) is the cash not used up in purchasing, which earns zero nominal interest;
- line (22.6), i.e. asset \(A_0\) at the beginning minus cash \(M_0\) to be hold and minus bank trip cost \(P_0 w\nu\phi\), is the saving that is untouched throughout the period of length \(\tau\);
- line (22.7) is the total nominal value of the accumulated labor income net of real tax and consumption real expenditure through non-cash payment:
- note that the household is using \((1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))\) fraction of time to work in each infinitesimally small time period to pay for lump-sum tax and consumption;
- so, \(w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\) is the real net labor income to be accumulated after paying for tax and consumption (not-by-cash part) in the infinitesimally small time period, which is denoted by \(acc\):
$$ acc=w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta)) $$
- this part of asset is accumulated in nominal term that both has nominal interest rate return and increasing price.
Derivation of the (22.7) term $$ > \begin{aligned} > \int_0^{\tau}(acc\cdot P_0)\,e^{i(\tau-t)}e^{\pi t}\,dt&=(acc\cdot P_0)\,e^{i\tau}\int_0^{\tau}e^{(\pi-i)t}\,dt\\ > &=(acc\cdot P_0)\,e^{i\tau}\cdot\frac{e^{(\pi-i)\tau}-1}{\pi-i}\\ > &=\frac{e^{\pi\tau}-e^{i\tau}}{\pi-i}\,P_0\big[w(1-n^h T^h(\gamma,\delta))-f-c(1-L^h(\gamma,\delta))\big] > \end{aligned} > $$
Lemma 22.1 Household's value function is money neutral, i.e. \(V(A;P)\) is homogeneous of degree 0 in \((A,P)\).
Proof This lemma is true because the whole problem (i.e. the Bellman equation (22.3) and the cash-in-advance constraint (22.4)) is homogeneous of degree 0 in \((A,P,M)\) since the problem never specifies the unit of cash and asset. In other words, the household's value is in terms of utility generated by real consumption, and the choice of real consumption at each time point is not a function of the unit of money and assets, so we can arbitrarily select the asset and money unit for the whole problem (cannot switch unit later) to be thousands or hundreds etc. and it won't change the optimal choice of consumption at each time point. \(\blacksquare\)
Now we have reached the Bellman equation (22.3), the CIA constraint (22.4), and the law of motion of asset (22.5), (22.6) and (22.7), then the rest of the analysis of this model can be carried out in a similar way as the model discussed in section 21 except that everything is deterministic in this model.
Remark 22.2 In this version of variant model, we are choosing \(\gamma\) and \(\delta\) to actually choose between paying by cash and paying by interest-bearing assets. We relaxed the all-by-cash constraint, but introduced a new cost to non-cash payment: time cost and the forgone real wage associated with it. So, the horse race here is between forgone interest (cost of cash payment) and forgone wage (cost of non-cash payment).