4. No Arbitrage Framework: Incomplete Market
本章在不完全市场 (incomplete market) 下重新审视随机贴现因子 (SDF)。核心问题:当可交易资产张不满整个状态空间(没有全套 Arrow–Debreu 证券)时,是否仍存在 SDF \(m\) 使得 \(p=\mathbb E[m\tilde x]\)?答案是肯定的,但要分清两个强弱不同的条件——一价定律 (Law of One Price)(弱)与无套利 (no arbitrage)(强)。主要结论:(i) 在"组合自由构造 + 一价定律"下,支付空间 \(\mathcal X\) 内存在唯一的 SDF \(x^*=\mathbf x'\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']^{-1}\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\);(ii) \(\mathcal X\) 外可有无穷多 SDF,但它们在 \(\mathcal X\) 上的投影 (projection) 都等于 \(x^*\);(iii) 金融基本定理 (Fundamental Theorem of Finance):无套利 \(\Leftrightarrow\) 存在严格为正的 SDF;(iv) 唯有完全市场才能保证 SDF 唯一。
This chapter revisits the stochastic discount factor (SDF) in an incomplete market. The key question: when tradable assets do not span the whole state space (no full set of Arrow–Debreu securities), does an SDF \(m\) with \(p=\mathbb E[m\tilde x]\) still exist? Yes — but we must distinguish two conditions of different strength: the Law of One Price (weaker) and no arbitrage (stronger). Main results: (i) under "free portfolio formation + Law of One Price", there is a unique SDF \(x^*=\mathbf x'\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']^{-1}\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\) inside the payoff space \(\mathcal X\); (ii) outside \(\mathcal X\) there can be infinitely many SDFs, but their projection onto \(\mathcal X\) all equals \(x^*\); (iii) the Fundamental Theorem of Finance: no arbitrage \(\Leftrightarrow\) existence of a strictly positive SDF; (iv) only a complete market makes the SDF unique.
4.1 Stochastic Discount Factor and Incomplete Market
无论是消费基础模型 (1.6) 还是完全市场 (3.3),定价都化为同一个基本表示:
Whether from the consumption-based model (1.6) or the complete market (3.3), pricing reduces to the same basic representation:
这被称为资产定价基本方程 (fundamental equation of asset pricing)。在完全市场中 (3.3) 给出唯一的 SDF \(m=\pi(s)\),即状态价格密度。
现实中市场往往不完全:可交易资产张不满整个状态空间,即我们没有全套 Arrow–Debreu 状态证券。关键问题是:还能否找到某个 SDF \(m\) 为这些资产定价? 答案是可以,但需要附加条件。
"\(m\) 能定价"的含义。 指任意证券价格 \(p\) 都能写成 \(m\) 与该证券支付 \(\tilde x\) 的函数 \(p=\mathbb E[m\tilde x]\)。What "\(m\) prices" means. Any security price \(p\) can be written as a function of \(m\) and that security's payoff \(\tilde x\): \(p=\mathbb E[m\tilde x]\).
This is the fundamental equation of asset pricing. In a complete market, (3.3) gives the unique SDF \(m=\pi(s)\), the state-price density.
In reality the market is often incomplete: tradable assets cannot span the entire state space, i.e. we do not have the full set of Arrow–Debreu state securities. The crucial question is: can we still find an SDF \(m\) that prices these assets? Yes, under some conditions.
"\(m\) 能定价"的含义。 指任意证券价格 \(p\) 都能写成 \(m\) 与该证券支付 \(\tilde x\) 的函数 \(p=\mathbb E[m\tilde x]\)。What "\(m\) prices" means. Any security price \(p\) can be written as a function of \(m\) and that security's payoff \(\tilde x\): \(p=\mathbb E[m\tilde x]\).
4.2 Setup
- 基础支付 (basis payoff): 用随机向量 \(\mathbf x=(x_1,x_2,\dots,x_N)'\) 记 \(N\) 个基础支付。"基础"指任何可交易组合的支付都能写成这 \(N\) 个基础支付的线性组合。
- 支付空间 (payoff space): 设 \(\mathcal X\) 为有限维支付空间,包含所有可交易证券支付及其线性组合:
- Basis payoff: denote the \(N\) basis payoffs by a random vector \(\mathbf x=(x_1,x_2,\dots,x_N)'\). "Basis" means the payoff of any tradable combination can be written as a linear combination of these \(N\) basis payoffs.
- Payoff space: let \(\mathcal X\) be the finite-dimensional payoff space containing all tradable payoffs and their linear combinations:
$$\mathcal X=\Big\{x:\,x=\sum_{i=1}^N c_i x_i\ \text{ for }\forall c_1,\dots,c_N\in\mathbb R\Big\}=\big\{\mathbf c'\mathbf x:\ \forall\mathbf c\in\mathbb R^N\big\}.$$
有限维来自有限的 \(N\)。下文主要在有限维下讨论,但当 \(N\to\infty\) 时结论可推广到无穷维。关键:不完全市场下 \(\mathcal X\) 一般张不满整个状态空间——它包含的支付不足以复制所有状态或有索取权。
非线性支付怎么办? 如期权这类指示函数支付,可以要么扩展到无穷维支付空间,要么把该特定非线性支付作为额外一维直接加入基础向量,仍停留在有限维。What about non-linear payoffs? For indicator-type payoffs such as options, either extend to an infinite-dimensional payoff space, or simply add that specific non-linear payoff as an extra dimension of the basis vector and stay finite-dimensional.
Finite-dimensionality comes from finite \(N\). The discussion below is mainly finite-dimensional, but extends to infinite dimensions as \(N\to\infty\). Crucially, under an incomplete market \(\mathcal X\) generally cannot span the whole state space — it contains fewer payoffs than needed to replicate all state-contingent claims.
非线性支付怎么办? 如期权这类指示函数支付,可以要么扩展到无穷维支付空间,要么把该特定非线性支付作为额外一维直接加入基础向量,仍停留在有限维。What about non-linear payoffs? For indicator-type payoffs such as options, either extend to an infinite-dimensional payoff space, or simply add that specific non-linear payoff as an extra dimension of the basis vector and stay finite-dimensional.
4.3 Existence of Stochastic Discount Factor
4.3.1 Portfolio Formation and Law of One Price
不完全市场下 SDF 的存在性需要两条假设。
- 假设 1(组合构造 Portfolio Formation)。 对 \(\forall y_1,y_2\in\mathcal X\) 和 \(\forall a,b\in\mathbb R\),有 \(ay_1+by_2\in\mathcal X\)。即投资者可自由地把证券线性组合成组合,且组合仍在支付空间内(排除卖空限制、买卖价差、杠杆限制)。
- 假设 2(一价定律 Law of One Price)。 定价函数 \(p:\mathcal X\to\mathbb R\) 是线性的:对 \(\forall y_1,y_2\in\mathcal X\)、\(\forall a,b\in\mathbb R\),
Existence of an SDF in an incomplete market requires two assumptions.
- Assumption 1 (Portfolio Formation). For \(\forall y_1,y_2\in\mathcal X\) and \(\forall a,b\in\mathbb R\), \(ay_1+by_2\in\mathcal X\). Investors can freely form portfolios as linear combinations, and the portfolio stays in the payoff space (rules out short-sale constraints, bid–ask spreads, leverage limits).
- Assumption 2 (Law of One Price). The pricing function \(p:\mathcal X\to\mathbb R\) is linear: for \(\forall y_1,y_2\in\mathcal X\), \(\forall a,b\in\mathbb R\),
$$p(ay_1+by_2)=a\,p(y_1)+b\,p(y_2).$$
一价定律意味着"一篮子的价格等于篮子内各部分价格之和",否则重构组合就有瞬时利润,不可能是均衡。
The Law of One Price means "the price of a bundle equals the sum of the prices of its parts"; otherwise restructuring a portfolio yields instantaneous profit, which cannot be an equilibrium.
4.3.2 Unique Stochastic Discount Factor within Payoff Space
SDF 的存在与一价定律是等价的——任一方都蕴含另一方。
定理 4.1。 SDF \(m\) 的存在蕴含一价定律。
Existence of an SDF and the Law of One Price are equivalent — each implies the other.
Theorem 4.1. The existence of an SDF \(m\) implies the Law of One Price.
证明 / Proof:SDF 存在 \(\Rightarrow\) 一价定律
设 \(y_3=ay_1+by_2\in\mathcal X\),由 SDF 定义 \(p(y)=\mathbb E[my]\):
Let \(y_3=ay_1+by_2\in\mathcal X\). By the SDF definition \(p(y)=\mathbb E[my]\):
$$p(y_3)=\mathbb E[my_3]=\mathbb E[m(ay_1+by_2)]=a\,\mathbb E[my_1]+b\,\mathbb E[my_2]=a\,p(y_1)+b\,p(y_2).\quad\blacksquare$$
反方向更有意思。
定理 4.2。 组合构造与一价定律蕴含存在唯一的 SDF \(x^*\in\mathcal X\)——它本身就是支付空间里的一个随机支付。
构造:设 \(x^*=\mathbf c^{*\prime}\mathbf x\)。只需找到唯一的 \(\mathbf c^*\) 使 \(x^*\) 为基础向量定价。记基础向量价格 \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)=(p(x_1),\dots,p(x_N))'\),则
The converse is more interesting.
Theorem 4.2. Portfolio Formation and the Law of One Price imply the existence of a unique SDF \(x^*\in\mathcal X\) — itself a random payoff inside the payoff space.
Construction: let \(x^*=\mathbf c^{*\prime}\mathbf x\). It suffices to find the unique \(\mathbf c^*\) such that \(x^*\) prices the basis vector. With the basis price vector \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)=(p(x_1),\dots,p(x_N))'\),
$$p(y)=\mathbb E[x^*y]=\mathbb E[\mathbf c^{*\prime}\mathbf x\,y], \tag{4.1}$$
证明 / Proof:唯一 SDF \(x^*=\mathbf x'\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']^{-1}\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\)
要 \(x^*\) 为基础向量定价,需 \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)=\mathbb E\big[(\mathbf c^{*\prime}\mathbf x)\,\mathbf x\big]=\mathbb E\big[\mathbf x(\mathbf x'\mathbf c^*)\big]=\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']\,\mathbf c^*\),于是
Requiring \(x^*\) to price the basis vector: \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)=\mathbb E\big[(\mathbf c^{*\prime}\mathbf x)\,\mathbf x\big]=\mathbb E\big[\mathbf x(\mathbf x'\mathbf c^*)\big]=\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']\,\mathbf c^*\), hence
$$\mathbf c^*=\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']^{-1}\,\mathbf p(\mathbf x), \tag{4.2}$$
$$x^*=\mathbf c^{*\prime}\mathbf x=\mathbf x'\mathbf c^*=\mathbf x'\,\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']^{-1}\,\mathbf p(\mathbf x). \tag{4.3}$$
最后一步用了基础向量无冗余(\(\mathbf x\) 无完全共线),等价于 \(\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']\) 可逆。再验证它为任意 \(y=\mathbf c_y'\mathbf x\) 定价:
The last step uses no redundancy in the basis (no perfect collinearity in \(\mathbf x\)), equivalent to invertibility of \(\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']\). Verify it prices any \(y=\mathbf c_y'\mathbf x\):
$$p(y)=\mathbb E[x^*y]=\mathbb E\big[y\,\mathbf x'\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']^{-1}\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\big]=\mathbf c_y'\,\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']\,\mathbb E[\mathbf{xx}']^{-1}\mathbf p(\mathbf x)=\mathbf c_y'\,\mathbf p(\mathbf x).\quad\blacksquare$$
\(x^*\) 是"模仿组合"。 它是用现有资产线性组合出来、并能复制定价的那个 SDF。注意 \(x^*\) 的存在仍依赖于给定的基础价格 \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\):\(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\) 不是被 \(x^*\) 定价,而是定义了 \(x^*\)(注 4.1)。给定 \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\),\(x^*\) 唯一(注 4.2)。\(x^*\) is a "mimicking payoff". It is the SDF built as a linear combination of existing assets that reproduces pricing. Its existence is conditional on the given basis prices \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\): \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\) is not priced by \(x^*\) but defines it (Remark 4.1). Given \(\mathbf p(\mathbf x)\), \(x^*\) is unique (Remark 4.2).
4.3.3 Projection of Stochastic Discount Factor
(4.3) 给出 \(\mathcal X\) 之内的唯一 SDF \(x^*\)。但 \(\mathcal X\) 之外可以有许多 SDF:任意随机变量 \(m\) 只要对 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) 满足
(4.3) gives the unique SDF \(x^*\) inside \(\mathcal X\). But outside \(\mathcal X\) there can be many SDFs: any random variable \(m\) is an SDF as long as for \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\)
$$p(y)=\mathbb E[my]. \tag{4.4}$$
记 \(m=x^*+\varepsilon\)。由于 \(x^*\) 为 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) 定价:
Write \(m=x^*+\varepsilon\). Since \(x^*\) prices \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\):
$$p(y)=\mathbb E[x^*y]=\mathbb E[(m-\varepsilon)y]=\mathbb E[my]-\mathbb E[(m-x^*)y]. \tag{4.5}$$
由 (4.5),(4.4) 成立 \(\iff \mathbb E[(m-x^*)y]=0\) 对 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\),即 \(x^*\) 是 \(m\) 在 \(\mathcal X\) 上的投影。
定义 4.1。 \(x^*\in\mathcal X\) 是 \(m\) 在空间 \(\mathcal X\) 上的投影,若 \(x^*\) 求解 \(\displaystyle\min_{x\in\mathcal X}\mathbb E[(m-x)^2]\)。
命题 4.1。 \(x^*\in\mathcal X\) 是 \(m\) 的投影 \(\iff \mathbb E[(m-x^*)y]=0\) 对 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\)。
By (4.5), (4.4) holds \(\iff \mathbb E[(m-x^*)y]=0\) for \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\), i.e. \(x^*\) is the projection of \(m\) onto \(\mathcal X\).
Definition 4.1. \(x^*\in\mathcal X\) is \(m\)'s projection onto \(\mathcal X\) if \(x^*\) solves \(\displaystyle\min_{x\in\mathcal X}\mathbb E[(m-x)^2]\).
Proposition 4.1. \(x^*\in\mathcal X\) is \(m\)'s projection \(\iff \mathbb E[(m-x^*)y]=0\) for \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\).
几点直觉(注 4.3–4.6)。 ① \(m\) 可在 \(\mathcal X\) 之外,且可有无穷多个,只要其投影是 \(x^*\),它就是 SDF——不完全市场下 SDF 不唯一。② 差 \(\varepsilon=m-x^*\) 必须与 \(\mathcal X\) 正交;之所以存在这种正交随机性,正是因为不完全市场下 \(\mathcal X\) 张不满状态空间。③ 给 SDF 添加与 \(\mathcal X\) 正交的信息,不改变它对 \(\mathcal X\) 内支付的定价能力。④ 完全市场下 (3.3) 给出唯一的 \(\pi(s)\),没有正交于支付空间的随机性,故 SDF 唯一。Intuitions (Remarks 4.3–4.6). (1) \(m\) may lie outside \(\mathcal X\) and there can be infinitely many; as long as its projection is \(x^*\) it is an SDF — the SDF is not unique under incomplete markets. (2) The gap \(\varepsilon=m-x^*\) must be orthogonal to \(\mathcal X\); such orthogonal randomness exists precisely because \(\mathcal X\) does not span the state space. (3) Adding \(\mathcal X\)-orthogonal information to the SDF does not change its ability to price payoffs in \(\mathcal X\). (4) A complete market gives the unique \(\pi(s)\) from (3.3) with no orthogonal randomness, so the SDF is unique.
4.3.4 Absence of Arbitrage
(4.3) 的 \(x^*\)(或一般的 \(m\))不保证为正:若基础支付服从正态分布,则当 \(\mathbf x\) 取负值时 \(x^*\) 也可能为负。我们关心 SDF 的正性,是因为它对应无套利条件。
定义 4.2(无套利 Absence of arbitrage)。 支付空间 \(\mathcal X\) 与定价函数 \(p(\cdot)\) 满足无套利,若:
- 对 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) 且 \(y\ge 0\) 几乎必然,有 \(p(y)\ge 0\);
- 对 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) 且 \(y\ge 0\) 几乎必然、并以正概率 \(y>0\),有 \(p(y)>0\)。
命题 4.2。 无套利蕴含一价定律(无套利更强)。
The \(x^*\) in (4.3) (or a general \(m\)) is not guaranteed positive: with normally distributed basis payoffs, \(x^*\) can be negative when \(\mathbf x\) takes negative values. We care about positivity of the SDF because it corresponds to no arbitrage.
Definition 4.2 (Absence of arbitrage). Payoff space \(\mathcal X\) and pricing function \(p(\cdot)\) have absence of arbitrage if:
- for \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) with \(y\ge 0\) almost surely, \(p(y)\ge 0\);
- for \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) with \(y\ge 0\) almost surely and \(y>0\) with positive probability, \(p(y)>0\).
Proposition 4.2. Absence of arbitrage implies the Law of One Price (no arbitrage is stronger).
证明 / Proof:无套利 \(\Rightarrow\) 一价定律(反证)
反设满足无套利但不满足一价定律。则 \(\exists y_1,y_2\in\mathcal X\)、\(\exists a,b\in\mathbb R\) 使 \(y_3=ay_1+by_2\in\mathcal X\) 但 \(p(y_3)\ne a\,p(y_1)+b\,p(y_2)\)。不失一般性设
Suppose absence of arbitrage holds but the Law of One Price fails. Then \(\exists y_1,y_2\in\mathcal X\), \(\exists a,b\in\mathbb R\) with \(y_3=ay_1+by_2\in\mathcal X\) but \(p(y_3)\ne a\,p(y_1)+b\,p(y_2)\). WLOG
$$p(y_3)>a\,p(y_1)+b\,p(y_2). \tag{4.6}$$
构造 \(y_4=ay_1+by_2-y_3\in\mathcal X\)(买 \(a\) 份 \(y_1\)、\(b\) 份 \(y_2\),卖 \(1\) 份 \(y_3\))。由 (4.6) 该头寸价格为负,但其支付 \(y_4=0\ge 0\),无套利要求其价格非负——矛盾。\(\blacksquare\)
Construct \(y_4=ay_1+by_2-y_3\in\mathcal X\) (buy \(a\) of \(y_1\), \(b\) of \(y_2\), sell \(1\) of \(y_3\)). By (4.6) this position has a negative price, yet its payoff \(y_4=0\ge 0\); absence of arbitrage requires a non-negative price — a contradiction. \(\blacksquare\)
反过来,一价定律不能推出无套利。
例 4.1(一价定律 \(\nRightarrow\) 无套利)。 设 \(\mathcal X\) 只有一个基础支付 \(x=1\)(确定性),定价 \(p(x)=-1\)。则一价定律可被满足(\(\forall t\in\mathbb R\),\(tx\in\mathcal X\) 且 \(p(tx)=-t\)),但这样的 \(\mathcal X,p\) 永远无法满足无套利(\(x=1\ge0\) 却 \(p=-1<0\))。
Conversely, the Law of One Price does not imply absence of arbitrage.
Example 4.1 (LOOP \(\nRightarrow\) no arbitrage). Let \(\mathcal X\) have a single basis payoff \(x=1\) (with certainty) and price \(p(x)=-1\). The Law of One Price can hold (\(\forall t\in\mathbb R\), \(tx\in\mathcal X\) and \(p(tx)=-t\)), yet this \(\mathcal X,p\) can never satisfy absence of arbitrage (\(x=1\ge0\) but \(p=-1<0\)).
4.3.5 Fundamental Theorem of Finance
定理 4.3(金融基本定理)。 对支付空间 \(\mathcal X\) 与定价函数 \(p:\mathcal X\to\mathbb R\),以下两条等价:
- (无套利) \(\mathcal X\) 与 \(p(\cdot)\) 满足无套利;
- (正 SDF) 存在 \(m>0\) 几乎必然,使 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) 有 \(p(y)=\mathbb E[my]\)。
Theorem 4.3 (Fundamental Theorem of Finance). For payoff space \(\mathcal X\) and pricing function \(p:\mathcal X\to\mathbb R\), the following are equivalent:
- (No arbitrage) \(\mathcal X\) and \(p(\cdot)\) satisfy absence of arbitrage;
- (Positive SDF) there exists \(m>0\) almost surely such that \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\), \(p(y)=\mathbb E[my]\).
证明 / Proof:正 SDF \(\Rightarrow\) 无套利(易)
设正 SDF。对 \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\)、\(y\ge0\) 几乎必然,因 \(m>0\)、\(y\ge0\),故 \(p(y)=\mathbb E[my]\ge0\)。再设 \(y\ge0\) 且以正概率 \(y>0\),则
Assume a positive SDF. For \(\forall y\in\mathcal X\) with \(y\ge0\) a.s., since \(m>0\) and \(y\ge0\), \(p(y)=\mathbb E[my]\ge0\). If moreover \(y>0\) with positive probability,
$$p(y)=\mathbb E[my]=\mathbb E[my\mid y=0]\,\mathbf P\{y=0\}+\underbrace{\mathbb E[my\mid y>0]}_{>0}\,\underbrace{\mathbf P\{y>0\}}_{>0}>0,$$
满足无套利。\(\blacksquare\)
which satisfies absence of arbitrage. \(\blacksquare\)
反方向(无套利 \(\Rightarrow\) 存在正 SDF)需要分离超平面定理。
定理 4.4(分离超平面定理)。 设 \(\mathcal X\subset\mathbb R^N\) 为凸集,\(\mathbf w\notin\mathcal X\)。则 \(\exists\mathbf y\in\mathbb R^N\) 使 \(\forall\mathbf x\in\mathcal X\) 有 \(\mathbf y'(\mathbf w-\mathbf x)\ge0\),且至少有一个 \(\mathbf x^*\in\mathcal X\) 使 \(\mathbf y'(\mathbf w-\mathbf x^*)>0\)。
The converse (no arbitrage \(\Rightarrow\) positive SDF) needs the separating hyperplane theorem.
Theorem 4.4 (Separating hyperplane theorem). Let \(\mathcal X\subset\mathbb R^N\) be convex and \(\mathbf w\notin\mathcal X\). Then \(\exists\mathbf y\in\mathbb R^N\) such that \(\forall\mathbf x\in\mathcal X\), \(\mathbf y'(\mathbf w-\mathbf x)\ge0\), and at least one \(\mathbf x^*\in\mathcal X\) has \(\mathbf y'(\mathbf w-\mathbf x^*)>0\).
证明 / Proof:无套利 \(\Rightarrow\) 存在正 SDF(分离超平面)
定义正 SDF 的凸集与其对应的价格集:
Define the convex set of positive SDFs and the corresponding set of prices:
$$\mathcal M=\big\{m>0\text{ a.s.},\ \mathbb E[|m|\,|x|]<\infty\ \forall x\in\mathcal X\big\},\qquad \mathcal P=\big\{\mathbb E[m\mathbf x]:\forall m\in\mathcal M\big\}\subset\mathbb R^N.$$
\(\mathcal P\) 凸(因 \(\mathcal M\) 凸)。记基础价格 \(\mathbf p_0=p(\mathbf x)\),只需证 \(\mathbf p_0\in\mathcal P\)。反设 \(\mathbf p_0\notin\mathcal P\),由分离超平面定理 4.4,\(\exists\mathbf h\in\mathbb R^N\):(1) \(\mathbf h'(\mathbf p-\mathbf p_0)\ge0\ \forall\mathbf p\in\mathcal P\);(2) \(\mathbf h'(\mathbf p^*-\mathbf p_0)>0\) 对某 \(\mathbf p^*\)。令 \(\hat x=\mathbf h'\mathbf x\)、\(\hat p=\mathbf h'\mathbf p_0\),则改写为 (1') \(\mathbb E[m\hat x]\ge\hat p\ \forall m\in\mathcal M\);(2') \(\mathbb E[m^*\hat x]>\hat p\)。
(1') 对任意 \(m\) 成立,特别对 \(\varepsilon m_0\)(\(\forall\varepsilon>0\))成立,取 \(\varepsilon\downarrow0\) 得
\(\mathcal P\) is convex (since \(\mathcal M\) is). Let the basis price be \(\mathbf p_0=p(\mathbf x)\); it suffices to show \(\mathbf p_0\in\mathcal P\). Suppose not. By the separating hyperplane theorem 4.4, \(\exists\mathbf h\in\mathbb R^N\): (1) \(\mathbf h'(\mathbf p-\mathbf p_0)\ge0\ \forall\mathbf p\in\mathcal P\); (2) \(\mathbf h'(\mathbf p^*-\mathbf p_0)>0\) for some \(\mathbf p^*\). Set \(\hat x=\mathbf h'\mathbf x\), \(\hat p=\mathbf h'\mathbf p_0\); these become (1') \(\mathbb E[m\hat x]\ge\hat p\ \forall m\in\mathcal M\); (2') \(\mathbb E[m^*\hat x]>\hat p\).
(1') holds for any \(m\), in particular for \(\varepsilon m_0\) (\(\forall\varepsilon>0\)); letting \(\varepsilon\downarrow0\),
$$\lim_{\varepsilon\downarrow0}\mathbb E[\varepsilon m_0\hat x]\ge\hat p\;\Longleftrightarrow\;\hat p\le0. \tag{4.7}$$
再取另一序列 \(m_\varepsilon=\big(\tfrac1\varepsilon\mathbf 1\{\hat x<0\}+1\big)m_0\in\mathcal M\),代入 (1') 并令 \(\varepsilon\downarrow0\),逐状态分析(\(\mathbf 1\{\hat x<0\}m_0\hat x\le0\))可得
Take another sequence \(m_\varepsilon=\big(\tfrac1\varepsilon\mathbf 1\{\hat x<0\}+1\big)m_0\in\mathcal M\); substituting into (1') and letting \(\varepsilon\downarrow0\), a state-by-state analysis (\(\mathbf 1\{\hat x<0\}m_0\hat x\le0\)) gives
$$\mathbf P\{\hat x\ge0\}=1. \tag{4.8}$$
故 \(\hat x\ge0\) 几乎必然,由无套利 \(\hat p\ge0\);结合 (4.7) 的 \(\hat p\le0\) 得 \(\hat p=0\)。但 (2') 给出 \(\mathbb E[m^*\hat x]>\hat p=0\),故
So \(\hat x\ge0\) a.s., and by absence of arbitrage \(\hat p\ge0\); together with \(\hat p\le0\) from (4.7), \(\hat p=0\). But (2') gives \(\mathbb E[m^*\hat x]>\hat p=0\), so
$$\mathbf P\{\hat x>0\}>0. \tag{4.9}$$
(4.8)+(4.9) 经无套利得 \(\hat p>0\),与 \(\hat p=0\) 矛盾。故 \(\mathbf p_0\in\mathcal P\):存在正 SDF \(m\) 为基础向量定价,从而为 \(\mathcal X\) 内任意支付定价。\(\blacksquare\)
(4.8)+(4.9) with absence of arbitrage give \(\hat p>0\), contradicting \(\hat p=0\). Hence \(\mathbf p_0\in\mathcal P\): a positive SDF \(m\) prices the basis vector, and therefore any payoff in \(\mathcal X\). \(\blacksquare\)
注 4.7–4.8。 上述证明针对有限维基础向量,可推广到更一般设定;且只证明了正 SDF 的存在,未保证唯一。要由无套利得到唯一 SDF,需要完全市场。
定理 4.5。 若 \(\mathcal X\) 张成完全市场(如 \(\mathcal X=\mathcal L^2\),见 4.3.6),则无套利蕴含存在唯一且以概率 1 为正的 SDF \(m\)。
Remarks 4.7–4.8. The proof is for a finite-dimensional basis, extendable to more general settings; it shows only existence of a positive SDF, not uniqueness. Getting a unique SDF from no arbitrage requires a complete market.
Theorem 4.5. If \(\mathcal X\) spans the complete market (e.g. \(\mathcal X=\mathcal L^2\), see §4.3.6), then absence of arbitrage implies a unique SDF \(m\) that is positive with probability 1.
证明 / Proof:完全市场下 SDF 唯一(反证)
存在性已由定理 4.3 给出,只需证唯一。反设有两个都几乎必然为正的不同 SDF \(m_1,m_2\),则存在状态 \(\omega\) 使 \(m_1(\omega)\ne m_2(\omega)\),不妨 \(m_1(\omega)>m_2(\omega)\)。完全市场下非线性支付 \(\mathbf 1\{m_1>m_2\}\) 也在 \(\mathcal X\) 内,\(m_1,m_2\) 都为它定价:
Existence is from Theorem 4.3; only uniqueness remains. Suppose two distinct, a.s.-positive SDFs \(m_1,m_2\). Then some state \(\omega\) has \(m_1(\omega)\ne m_2(\omega)\), WLOG \(m_1(\omega)>m_2(\omega)\). Under a complete market the non-linear payoff \(\mathbf 1\{m_1>m_2\}\) is also in \(\mathcal X\), and both \(m_1,m_2\) price it:
$$\mathbb E\big[(m_1-m_2)\,\mathbf 1\{m_1>m_2\}\big]=0\;\Longrightarrow\;\underbrace{(m_1-m_2)}_{>0}\,\underbrace{\mathbf P\{m_1>m_2\}}_{>0}=0,$$
矛盾。故 SDF 唯一。\(\blacksquare\)
a contradiction. Hence the SDF is unique. \(\blacksquare\)
4.3.6 General Setting
去掉有限维限制的一般设定。定义 \(\mathcal L^2=\{x:\mathbb E[|x|^2]<\infty\}\),并赋予
- 内积:\(\forall x_1,x_2\in\mathcal L^2\),\(\langle x_1\mid x_2\rangle=\mathbb E[x_1 x_2]\);
- 范数:\(\forall x\in\mathcal L^2\),\(|x|=\langle x\mid x\rangle^{1/2}\);
- 收敛:\(\{x_j\},x_0\in\mathcal L^2\),\(\{x_j\}\to x_0\iff |x_j-x_0|\to0\) 几乎必然。
设支付空间 \(\mathcal X\subset\mathcal L^2\) 为完备线性空间(对极限封闭——此"完备"与"完全市场"无关);定价 \(p:\mathcal X\to\mathbb R\) 为线性且连续。则基本结论仍成立:存在唯一的 \(x^*\in\mathcal X\) 使 \(\forall x\in\mathcal X\),
The general setting without finite-dimensionality. Define \(\mathcal L^2=\{x:\mathbb E[|x|^2]<\infty\}\) with
- inner product: \(\forall x_1,x_2\in\mathcal L^2\), \(\langle x_1\mid x_2\rangle=\mathbb E[x_1 x_2]\);
- norm: \(\forall x\in\mathcal L^2\), \(|x|=\langle x\mid x\rangle^{1/2}\);
- convergence: for \(\{x_j\},x_0\in\mathcal L^2\), \(\{x_j\}\to x_0\iff |x_j-x_0|\to0\) a.s.
Let the payoff space \(\mathcal X\subset\mathcal L^2\) be a complete linear space (closed under limits — this "complete" is unrelated to "complete market"); let \(p:\mathcal X\to\mathbb R\) be linear and continuous. Then the basic conclusion still holds: there exists a unique \(x^*\in\mathcal X\) such that \(\forall x\in\mathcal X\),
$$p(x)=\mathbb E[x^*x].$$
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