24. Corporate Governance

Note

本章主题:公司治理。 治理 = 规范经理行为、确保资本供给者获合理回报的机制。有效市场假说会失败(如 Grossman-Hart 1980 分散股东搭便车使收购难、经理可壕沟自固)。§24.1 度量控制权私利:Zingales (1994) 用意大利投票/无投票股价差,主回归 \(VP=\alpha+\beta(RSV/\pi)+\gamma(e/P_{nv})+u\) (24.1)(投票溢价均值 81.5%,控制权越大溢价越高);Dyck-Zingales (2004) 用控制权区块价与市价之差 \(P=\lambda(B_b+\alpha Y_b)+(1-\lambda)(B_s+\alpha Y_s)\) (24.2)、控制溢价 \(\hat B\) (24.3)——39 国均值 14%(投资者保护差的国家更高)。§24.2 维权与收购:Bertrand-Mullainathan (2003) 用各州反收购(业务合并)法的时变变异 (24.4)(24.5)——「安逸生活」(低收购威胁)→ 多付工人工资、更低生产率/盈利;Brav et al. (2008) 对冲基金维权 13D:目标公司公告日 +7% 异常回报、更高派付/业绩/CEO 离职(基金作知情股东监督)。§24.3 高管薪酬:Frydman-Saks (2010) 薪酬-公司规模相关性 1946–75 弱、1975–2005 强(合 Gabaix-Landier);Kaplan-Rauh (2013) 超级明星效应(CEO 与体育明星薪酬同期齐升);Shue-Townsend (2017) 期权周期工具 (24.6)(24.7)——更多期权→更高股价波动(经由提高杠杆)。§24.4 Bennedsen et al. (2007) 裙带:用 CEO 头胎性别作工具 (24.8)–(24.11)——任命家族 CEO 使盈利降 6%–8%

Note

Chapter theme: corporate governance. Governance = mechanisms regulating manager behavior and ensuring capital suppliers are reasonably repaid. The efficient-market hypothesis can fail (e.g. Grossman-Hart 1980 dispersed shareholders free-ride making takeovers hard, managers entrench). §24.1 Measuring private benefits of control: Zingales (1994) uses the Italian voting/nonvoting price gap, main regression \(VP=\alpha+\beta(RSV/\pi)+\gamma(e/P_{nv})+u\) (24.1) (mean voting premium 81.5%, higher control rights → higher premium); Dyck-Zingales (2004) use the controlling-block-price vs market-price difference \(P=\lambda(B_b+\alpha Y_b)+(1-\lambda)(B_s+\alpha Y_s)\) (24.2), control premium \(\hat B\) (24.3) — a 39-country average of 14% (higher where investors are less protected). §24.2 Activists and takeovers: Bertrand-Mullainathan (2003) use the time variation of state anti-takeover (business-combination) laws (24.4)(24.5) — "quiet life" (low takeover threat) → overpaying workers, lower productivity/profitability; Brav et al. (2008) hedge-fund activism via 13D: a +7% abnormal return for targets at announcement, higher payout/performance/CEO turnover (the fund monitors as an informed shareholder). §24.3 Executive compensation: Frydman-Saks (2010) the pay–firm-size correlation is weak 1946–75 but strong 1975–2005 (consistent with Gabaix-Landier); Kaplan-Rauh (2013) a superstar effect (CEO and sports-star pay rise together); Shue-Townsend (2017) the option-cycle instrument (24.6)(24.7) — more options → higher stock volatility (via higher leverage). §24.4 Bennedsen et al. (2007) nepotism: using the CEO's firstborn gender as an instrument (24.8)–(24.11) — appointing a family CEO reduces profitability by 6%–8%.

24.1 Measuring Private Benefits of Control

公司治理 = 关于规范经理行为、确保资本供给者获合理回报的机制领域;相关方为董事会、经理、股东,治理规定各方责任/权利、设定目标、刻画实现目标之道。有效市场假说的失败:产品市场竞争或惩罚/替换低效管理、解决治理,但摩擦阻止充分纠正。例如 Grossman-Hart (1980):收购方接管可为公司增值,但股东过于分散、搭便车,故收购方实施收购极昂贵、攻击目标的激励弱。另例:管理层壕沟自固(设章程/细则使董事选举罕见或表决难过,令外部收购更难)。经理之所以壕沟自固,是因从控制中享巨大私利(Jensen-Meckling 1976 perk;Aghion-Bolton 1992 私人控制权益),但实证上难度量。

24.1.1 比较差异投票权的股份:Zingales (1994). 用意大利投票股与无投票股的价差表明控制权私利大。制度:1974 起意大利上市公司可在普通股(有投票权)外发储蓄股(无投票权,承诺最低股利 5% 面值,若普通股派息则储蓄股保证股利 + 2% 面值,清算时优先,但无投票权)。数据:米兰交易所 1987–1990 同时有投票/无投票股的 64(1987)/86(1990)家公司。公司 \(i\) 在 \(t\) 的投票溢价 \(VP_i^t=\frac{P_{v,t}^i-P_{nv,t}^i}{P_{nv,t}^i}\)。相对夏普利值 RSV:夏普利值

$$\varphi_i(v)=\sum_{\mathcal S\subseteq N\setminus\{i\}}\frac{|\mathcal S|!\,(n-|\mathcal S|-1)!}{n!}\big(v(\mathcal S\cup\{i\})-v(\mathcal S)\big)$$

Zingales 释为小股东选票在随机联盟中成为关键的概率;RSV=夏普利值/小股东持票比例,归一 \(RSV/\pi\)(\(\pi\) 投票股流通比例)度量外部股东在争夺收购中的控制力。Privilege \(e_t^i\)=无投票股额外股利分配。主回归

$$VP_i^t=\alpha+\beta\left(\frac{RSV}{\pi}\right)_t^i+\gamma\frac{e_t^i}{P_{nv,t}^i}+u_t^i \tag{24.1}$$

结果(图 24.1 摘要:投票溢价均值 81.5%;图 24.2:更高控制权(更高 \(RSV/\pi\))→ 更高投票溢价):有可能拥有关键控制权的股份(投票股)确比无此可能者(无投票股)赚更高回报 → 控制权高的各方享私利。

Corporate governance = the field of mechanisms regulating manager behavior and ensuring capital suppliers are reasonably repaid; the relevant parties are the board, managers, and shareholders, and governance specifies each party's responsibilities/rights, sets objectives, and delineates how to achieve them. Failure of the efficient-market hypothesis: product-market competition might punish/replace inefficient management and solve governance, but frictions prevent sufficient corrections. For example, Grossman-Hart (1980): a raider can add value by taking over, but shareholders are so dispersed and free-ride, making it extremely costly for the raider to implement a takeover and weakening the incentive to attack a target. Another: management entrenchment (setting the charter/bylaws so board elections are infrequent or votes hard to pass, making outside takeovers harder). Managers entrench because they enjoy tremendous private benefits from control (Jensen-Meckling 1976 perks; Aghion-Bolton 1992 private control benefit), but these are hard to measure empirically.

24.1.1 Comparing shares with differential voting rights: Zingales (1994). Uses the price difference between voting and nonvoting shares in Italy to show the private benefit of control is large. Institutional: since 1974 Italian public companies can issue saving shares (nonvoting) in addition to common stock (voting), with a promised minimum dividend of 5% of par value, a guaranteed dividend + 2% of par if common shares are paid, seniority in liquidation, but no voting rights. Data: 64 (1987)/86 (1990) Milan-listed companies with both share types, 1987–1990. The voting premium of firm \(i\) at \(t\), \(VP_i^t=\frac{P_{v,t}^i-P_{nv,t}^i}{P_{nv,t}^i}\). Relative Sharpley value RSV: the Sharpley value

$$\varphi_i(v)=\sum_{\mathcal S\subseteq N\setminus\{i\}}\frac{|\mathcal S|!\,(n-|\mathcal S|-1)!}{n!}\big(v(\mathcal S\cup\{i\})-v(\mathcal S)\big)$$

interpreted by Zingales as the probability a small shareholder's votes become pivotal in a random coalition; RSV = the Sharpley value / the fraction of votes held by small shareholders, with the normalized \(RSV/\pi\) (\(\pi\) the fraction of voting shares outstanding) measuring outside shareholders' control power in a contested acquisition. The privilege \(e_t^i\) = the additional dividend distribution of nonvoting shares. Main regression

$$VP_i^t=\alpha+\beta\left(\frac{RSV}{\pi}\right)_t^i+\gamma\frac{e_t^i}{P_{nv,t}^i}+u_t^i \tag{24.1}$$

Results (Figure 24.1 summary: mean voting premium 81.5%; Figure 24.2: higher control rights (higher \(RSV/\pi\)) → higher voting premium): shares with the possibility of pivotal control rights (voting shares) earn higher returns than those without (nonvoting) → parties with higher control rights enjoy private benefits.

24.1.2 Difference in Pay for Controlling Blocks: Dyck and Zingales (2004)

Zingales (1994) 受限于双重股份国家少、难作国际比较;Dyck-Zingales (2004) 用另一方法分析国际数据。控制权区块=主导所有权的股份块。买控制权区块每股价含未来现金流索取权(同非控制股)+ 私人控制权益;交易后市价仅含未来现金流索取权;两者之差反映买方私人控制权益。设 \(P\) 控制权区块交易总价、\(B_s/B_b\) 卖/买方提取私利、\(Y_s/Y_b\) 卖/买方产生的共同证券收益(经公司业绩、全体股东共享)、\(\alpha\) 控制区块占总股比例(现金流权)、\(\lambda\in[0,1]\) 控制股东(卖方)讨价还价能力:

$$P=\lambda(B_b+\alpha Y_b)+(1-\lambda)(B_s+\alpha Y_s) \tag{24.2}$$

(\(\lambda=1\) 卖方全谈判力→价≈买方支付意愿;\(\lambda=0\)→≈卖方保留价)。减去交易后 \(\alpha\) 比例共同收益市价 \(\alpha Y_b\) 得控制溢价

$$\hat B=P-\alpha Y_b=\lambda B_b+(1-\lambda)B_s-\alpha(1-\lambda)(Y_b-Y_s) \tag{24.3}$$

\(\hat B\) = 买卖双方私人控制权益的组合。数据:39 国 1990–2000 共 393 笔控制权区块交易(>10% 股、买方从 <20% 到 >20%)。结果:控制价值(控制溢价 \(\hat B\))均值 = 交易股权值的 14%(日本最低 −4%、巴西最高 65%);投资者保护差的国家更高;控制权私利对金融发展影响巨大(\(\hat B\) 增 1 标准差 → 外部市值/GNP 降 67%、非控制股东持股降 11%、私下协议出售的私有化公司增 36%)。\(\hat B\) 更低的国家:法律机制(更好会计准则、少数股东法律保护、法律执行)+ 法外机制(更高媒体扩散、税收合规、产品市场竞争)。

Zingales (1994) is constrained by few countries having dual shares, making international comparison hard; Dyck-Zingales (2004) use another method for international data. The controlling block = the block of shares dominating ownership. The price paid per share of a controlling block includes the future-cash-flow claim (same as non-controlling shares) + the private control benefit; the post-transaction market price incorporates only the future-cash-flow claim; the difference reflects the buyer's private control benefit. Let \(P\) be the total price of a controlling-block transaction, \(B_s/B_b\) the private benefit extracted by the seller/buyer, \(Y_s/Y_b\) the total common-security benefit generated by the seller/buyer (from firm performance, shared by all shareholders), \(\alpha\) the controlling block's fraction of total shares (cash-flow rights), \(\lambda\in[0,1]\) the controlling shareholder's (seller's) bargaining power:

$$P=\lambda(B_b+\alpha Y_b)+(1-\lambda)(B_s+\alpha Y_s) \tag{24.2}$$

(\(\lambda=1\) full seller power → price ≈ the buyer's willingness to pay; \(\lambda=0\) → ≈ the seller's reservation price). Subtracting the post-transaction market price of the common benefit in the \(\alpha\) fraction, \(\alpha Y_b\), gives the control premium

$$\hat B=P-\alpha Y_b=\lambda B_b+(1-\lambda)B_s-\alpha(1-\lambda)(Y_b-Y_s) \tag{24.3}$$

\(\hat B\) = a combination of the private control benefits of both buyer and seller. Data: 393 controlling-block transactions in 39 countries 1990–2000 (>10% stock, the buyer moving from below 20% to over 20%). Results: the value of control (control premium \(\hat B\)) averages 14% of the transaction equity value (min −4% Japan, max 65% Brazil); higher where investors are less protected; private benefits have a huge effect on financial development (a 1-std increase in \(\hat B\) → a 67% reduction in external market cap/GNP, an 11% reduction in equity held by non-controlling shareholders, a 36% increase in privatized companies sold via private negotiations). Countries with lower \(\hat B\): legal mechanisms (better accounting standards, minority-shareholder legal protection, law enforcement) + extra-legal mechanisms (higher press diffusion, tax compliance, product-market competition).

24.2.1 Anti-Takeover Laws and the "Quiet Life": Bertrand and Mullainathan (2003)

利用各州反收购法的时变变异作为公司治理变异之源,研究收购威胁对公司业绩的影响。制度:联邦 Williams Act(1968,保护要约收购中的目标股东);各州 1970 年代以自身法规扩展(第一代);1982 年最高法院判第一代违宪,第二波 1987 年被判合宪 → 触发更严的第三波反收购法。最严的是业务合并法(本研究焦点):对目标与持特定阈值股份的收购方之间的特定交易设 3–5 年禁售期,除非董事会在收购方行动前投票赞成。该法通过后,州内公司经理获否决收购权、可极大影响董事会不批准出售公司资产 → 收购方(高杠杆、欲卖目标部分资产融资)难收购。数据:1976–1995;Census 的 LRD 工厂级数据(美国制造业)+ COMPUSTAT 公司级财务。外生性:州法适用于在该州注册的所有公司(无论工厂物理位置),故对工厂合理外生。主回归

$$y_{jklt}=\alpha_t+\alpha_j+\boldsymbol\gamma'\mathbf X_{jklt}+\delta BC_{kt}+\varepsilon_{jklt} \tag{24.4}$$

\(j\) 公司、\(k\) 注册州、\(l\) 所在州、\(t\) 时间;\(\alpha_t\) 年 FE、\(\alpha_j\) 公司 FE;\(BC_{kt}\)=1 若州 \(k\) 在 \(t\) 通过反收购法;\(y\) 可为 log 工资、TFP(由 \(\ln(\text{output}_i)=\alpha+\ln(\text{wage}_i)+\beta\ln(\text{capital}_i)+\gamma\ln(\text{material}_i)+\epsilon_i\) (24.5) 的残差算分位)或资本回报。结果:图 24.3(蓝领工资)安逸生活(低收购威胁、反收购法通过)→ 多付工人;图 24.4(生产率 TFP、盈利资本回报)→ 更低生产率与盈利。

Exploit the time variation of state anti-takeover laws as a source of corporate-governance variation to study takeover threat's effect on firm performance. Institutional: the federal Williams Act (1968, protecting target shareholders in tender offers); states extended it via own statutes in the 1970s (first generation); in 1982 the Supreme Court deemed the first generation unconstitutional, the second wave was upheld in 1987 → triggering a stricter third wave. The strictest are business combination laws (this study's focus): they impose a 3–5 year moratorium on specified transactions between a target and a raider holding a threshold percentage, unless the board votes in favor before the raider acts. Once passed, managers of in-state firms get a veto over takeovers and can greatly influence the board not to approve selling assets → hard for raiders (highly leveraged, planning to sell part of the target's assets to finance). Data: 1976–1995; the Census LRD plant-level data (US manufacturing) + COMPUSTAT firm-level financials. Exogeneity: the state law applies to all firms incorporated in the state (regardless of plant location), so it's reasonably exogenous to plants. Main regression

$$y_{jklt}=\alpha_t+\alpha_j+\boldsymbol\gamma'\mathbf X_{jklt}+\delta BC_{kt}+\varepsilon_{jklt} \tag{24.4}$$

\(j\) firm, \(k\) state of incorporation, \(l\) state of location, \(t\) time; \(\alpha_t\) year FE, \(\alpha_j\) firm FE; \(BC_{kt}=1\) if state \(k\) passed an anti-takeover law at \(t\); \(y\) can be log wage, TFP (a percentile from the residual of \(\ln(\text{output}_i)=\alpha+\ln(\text{wage}_i)+\beta\ln(\text{capital}_i)+\gamma\ln(\text{material}_i)+\epsilon_i\) (24.5)), or return on capital. Results: Figure 24.3 (blue-collar wages) quiet life (low takeover threat, anti-takeover law passed) → overpaying workers; Figure 24.4 (productivity TFP, profitability return on capital) → lower productivity and profitability.

24.2.2 Targets of Hedge Funds: Brav et al. (2008)

研究对冲基金维权的后果:目标公司公告日附近 +7% 异常回报、更高派付、更好经营业绩、维权后更高 CEO 离职 → 对冲基金作为知情股东监督公司。制度:代理权争夺 (proxy contest) 是为公司控制权的不友好争斗(外部股东不满治理,目标常是换董事/经理);维权者说服股东代理其投票。在位董事/经理自保:交错董事会(错开选举年)、细则限制、毒丸。对冲基金=新型公司维权者,高杠杆,目标卖低效单元或解雇差管理层;瞄准价值型公司(低市值账面比)、低派付、相对同类公司高 CEO 薪酬者。数据:2001–2006 的 13D 文件(LiveEdgar;1934 法 §13(d) 强制:投资者购入某类证券 >5% 且有意影响管理层时须 10 日内报 SEC);11,602 报告者手工分类(银行/券商/普通公司/外国机构/个人/保险/养老/信托/其他、最重要的对冲基金/PE/VC)。结果:典型目标(图 24.5)、典型策略(图 24.6、24.7);图 24.8(13D 申报日附近回报与换手)申报事件附近换手更高、异常回报正(±20 日窗均值 8.4%);不同维权类型异常回报不同(图 24.9:意在卖目标资产的对冲基金诱致最高公告窗异常回报)。变量:\(\ln(MV)\) log 市值、LTDebt 长期债/(债+股权市值)、Pre-13F 虚拟(此前 13F 已披露 >1% 或 100 万美元持仓)、Avg Pre-Returns 同基金先前事件平均异常回报。

Study the consequences of hedge-fund activism: a +7% abnormal return around announcement for the target, higher payout, better operating performance, higher CEO turnover after activism → hedge funds monitor firms as informed shareholders. Institutional: a proxy contest is an unfriendly fight for corporate control (outside shareholders are unsatisfied, typically aiming to change directors/managers); activists persuade shareholders to proxy for them. Incumbent self-protection: staggering boards (different election years), restrictive by-laws, poison pills. Hedge funds = new corporate activists, high leverage, aiming to sell inefficient units or fire ill-performing management; targeting value firms (low market-to-book), low payout, high CEO pay relative to comparables. Data: 13D filings 2001–2006 (LiveEdgar; §13(d) of the 1934 Act mandates: an investor acquiring >5% of a class of securities intending to affect management must file with the SEC within 10 days); 11,602 filers manually classified (banks/brokerage/regular firms/foreign institutions/individuals/insurance/pension/trusts/misc, and most importantly hedge funds/PE/VC). Results: typical objectives (Figure 24.5), typical tactics (Figures 24.6, 24.7); Figure 24.8 (returns and turnover around the 13D filing day) higher turnover and positive abnormal return near the filing (±20-day window mean 8.4%); abnormal returns differ by activism type (Figure 24.9: hedge funds intending to sell the target's assets induce the highest announcement-window abnormal return). Variables: \(\ln(MV)\) log market cap, LTDebt long-term debt/(debt + equity market value), Pre-13F dummy (prior 13F revealed >1% or 1 million USD), Avg Pre-Returns the same fund's prior-event mean abnormal return.

24.3 Executive Compensation

Gabaix-Landier (2008,§3.5.2):均衡中更大公司雇更有才的经理、给更高薪、是高效匹配。以下论文给经理薪酬与才能-规模匹配相关的实证证据。

24.3.1 Frydman-Saks (2010) 实证记录:美国经理薪酬与公司增长的相关性 1946–1975 弱、1975–2005 强得多。数据:1936–2005,最大 50 家公司中 3 位最高薪高管(共 101 家);1936–1991 用 SEC 强制披露的 10K + 委托书构造面板,1992–2005 用标普高管薪酬库。结果:经理总薪酬 1940s–1970s 增长不多、1970s 后剧增;长期薪酬(股票/期权)日益重要(图 24.10);图 24.11 回归:加公司 FE 与时间趋势后,公司规模与经理薪酬相关性 1946–75 弱、1975–2005 强(合 Gabaix-Landier 2008)。

24.3.2 Kaplan-Rauh (2013):美国更严重的收入不平等更可能是超级明星效应(规模扩大 + 技能型技术变迁使诸多职业的超级明星而非仅公司经理赚得越来越多)。CEO 薪酬(图 24.12,S&P 500 CEO 1993–2011 均/中位,2010 年美元,ExecuComp);顶级运动员薪酬(图 24.13,棒/篮/橄榄球前 25 均薪,USA Today)。合并:经理与体育明星薪酬同期显著齐升 → 不太可能是 CEO 薪酬有何特殊(更大 CEO 权力或社会规范变化)驱动其超高薪。

24.3.3 Shue-Townsend (2017)(与 §17.3.4 例重叠):研究高管期权授予对风险承担的影响。难点:遗漏变量同时影响期权授予与风险承担;克服——高管薪酬有固定周期,工具为虚拟 \(I_{ijt}^{\text{PredictedFY}}\)(由上周期长度预测的各周期首年,与遗漏变量不共动→排他;薪酬在首年调整→相关)。第一阶段 \(\Delta O_{ijt}=\beta_0+\beta_1 I_{ijt}^{\text{PredictedFY}}+\gamma_t+\psi_j+\mu_{ijt}\) (24.6)、第二阶段 \(\Delta y_{ijt}=\delta_0+\delta_1\Delta\hat O_{ijt}+\gamma_t+\psi_j+e_{ijt}\) (24.7)。结果:更多期权授予→更高股价波动(图 24.14 第一阶段 ΔLog B-S/Delta/Vega、图 24.15 第二阶段波动率);机制(图 24.16)以杠杆/投资为因变量跑 2SLS——更高期权值→显著更高杠杆、投资无显著变化 → 期权薪酬经提高公司杠杆使股价更波动。

Gabaix-Landier (2008, §3.5.2): in equilibrium a larger company hires a more talented manager and pays a higher salary, an efficient matching. The following papers give empirical evidence on managerial compensation related to talent-size matching.

24.3.1 Frydman-Saks (2010) empirically document: the correlation between US managerial pay and firm growth is weak 1946–1975 but much stronger 1975–2005. Data: 1936–2005, the 3 highest-paid officers in the largest 50 firms (101 firms total); 1936–1991 a panel from SEC-mandated 10K + proxy statements, 1992–2005 the S&P Executive Compensation database. Results: managerial total compensation didn't increase much in the 1940s–1970s but increased dramatically after the 1970s; long-term pay (stocks/options) became increasingly important (Figure 24.10); Figure 24.11 regressions: after firm FE and time trend, the firm-size–pay correlation is weak 1946–75 but strong 1975–2005 (consistent with Gabaix-Landier 2008).

24.3.2 Kaplan-Rauh (2013): more severe US income inequality is more likely a superstar effect (increased scale + skill-biased technological change make superstars in many occupations, not just corporate managers, earn increasingly more). CEO pay (Figure 24.12, S&P 500 CEO 1993–2011 mean/median, 2010 USD, ExecuComp); top sports-player pay (Figure 24.13, top-25 baseball/basketball/football, USA Today). Combining: managers' and sports stars' pay rise together significantly in the same period → it's less likely that something special about CEO pay (greater CEO power or social-norm change) drives the super-high salary.

24.3.3 Shue-Townsend (2017) (overlaps the §17.3.4 example): study executive option grants' effect on risk-taking. Difficulty: omitted variables affect both granting and risk-taking; overcome — compensation has fixed cycles, with the instrument a dummy \(I_{ijt}^{\text{PredictedFY}}\) (the predicted first year of each cycle from the last cycle's length, not co-moving with omitted variables → exclusion; pay is adjusted in the first year → relevance). First stage \(\Delta O_{ijt}=\beta_0+\beta_1 I_{ijt}^{\text{PredictedFY}}+\gamma_t+\psi_j+\mu_{ijt}\) (24.6), second stage \(\Delta y_{ijt}=\delta_0+\delta_1\Delta\hat O_{ijt}+\gamma_t+\psi_j+e_{ijt}\) (24.7). Results: more option grants → higher stock volatility (Figure 24.14 first stage ΔLog B-S/Delta/Vega, Figure 24.15 second stage volatility); the mechanism (Figure 24.16), running 2SLS with leverage/investment as the dependent — higher option value → significantly higher leverage, no significant change in investment → option compensation makes the stock more volatile by raising the firm's leverage.

24.4 Nepotism Within Corporations: Bennedsen et al. (2007)

用丹麦数据研究家族或外部 CEO 任命对公司业绩的影响。特别之处:用一个貌似外生的变异——CEO 头胎孩子的性别作识别。数据:1994–2002 丹麦有限责任(公私)公司的 5,334 次继任,含财务信息 + 离任/接任 CEO 的个人/家庭信息(KOB 财务管理、丹麦民事登记系统、丹麦商业公司局匹配)。家族 CEO 效应事前模糊:正面(家族 CEO 从公司成功获更高非货币回报、或有更好公司专有知识与利益相关者信任、或更注重长期);负面(家族与公司利益冲突、家族 CEO 选自更小才能池)。主回归

$$y_i=\alpha_1+\boldsymbol\beta'\mathbf X_i+\gamma\cdot\text{famCEO}_i+\varepsilon_i \tag{24.8}$$

\(y_i\) 公司 \(i\) 业绩、famCEO\(_i\)=1 若接任 CEO 与离任 CEO 有血缘或婚姻关系。OLS 有问题(家族 CEO 任命非外生、与 \(\varepsilon\) 中未观测业绩因素相关)。2SLS:工具 genderfirst\(_i\)=1 若离任 CEO 头胎为男(排他:公司业绩与头胎性别正交;相关:CEO 或指望儿子接班,头胎非男时失望转而找外部职业 CEO,图 24.17)。第一阶段

$$\text{famCEO}_i=\alpha_1+\mathbf b'\mathbf X_i+c\cdot\text{genderfirst}_i+e_i \tag{24.9}$$

第二阶段 \(y_i=\alpha_1+\boldsymbol\beta'\mathbf X_i+\gamma\cdot\widehat{\text{famCEO}}_i+\varepsilon_i\) (24.10)、简约式 \(y_i=\xi_1+\boldsymbol\psi'\mathbf X_i+\phi\cdot\text{genderfirst}_i+\epsilon_i\) (24.11)。结果:第一阶段显著(图 24.17,头胎为男增家族 CEO;OROA=经营资本回报);简约式(图 24.18,盈利=行业与业绩调整 OROA);合一阶段与简约式得 IV 估计——任命家族 CEO 使公司盈利业绩降 6%–8%;OLS vs IV-2SLS(图 24.19):IV-2SLS 显示家族 CEO 的负效应比 OLS 更强。

Use Denmark data to study the impact of family or external CEO appointment on firm performance. The special feature: a plausibly exogenous variation — the gender of the CEO's firstborn child — for identification. Data: 5,334 successions 1994–2002 in Danish limited-liability (public/private) firms, with financial info + personal/family info on departing/incoming CEOs (KOB financial-management, the Danish Civil Registration System, a Danish Commerce and Companies Agency match). The family-CEO effect is ambiguous ex ante: positive (a family CEO gets higher non-monetary reward from firm success, or has better firm-specific knowledge and stakeholder trust, or focuses more on the long run); negative (conflicts between family and company interests, family CEOs selected from a smaller talent pool). Main regression

$$y_i=\alpha_1+\boldsymbol\beta'\mathbf X_i+\gamma\cdot\text{famCEO}_i+\varepsilon_i \tag{24.8}$$

\(y_i\) firm \(i\)'s performance, famCEO\(_i=1\) if the incoming CEO is related by blood or marriage to the departing CEO. OLS is problematic (family-CEO appointment is not exogenous, related to performance factors unobserved in \(\varepsilon\)). 2SLS: the instrument genderfirst\(_i=1\) if the departing CEO's firstborn is male (exclusion: firm performance is orthogonal to the firstborn's gender; relevance: a CEO may count on a son to take over, getting disappointed when the firstborn isn't male and looking for an outside professional CEO, Figure 24.17). First stage

$$\text{famCEO}_i=\alpha_1+\mathbf b'\mathbf X_i+c\cdot\text{genderfirst}_i+e_i \tag{24.9}$$

second stage \(y_i=\alpha_1+\boldsymbol\beta'\mathbf X_i+\gamma\cdot\widehat{\text{famCEO}}_i+\varepsilon_i\) (24.10), reduced form \(y_i=\xi_1+\boldsymbol\psi'\mathbf X_i+\phi\cdot\text{genderfirst}_i+\epsilon_i\) (24.11). Results: the first stage is significant (Figure 24.17, a male firstborn increases family CEO; OROA = operating return on assets); the reduced form (Figure 24.18, profitability = industry- and performance-adjusted OROA); combining the first stage and reduced form gives the IV estimate — appointing a family CEO reduces profitability by 6%–8%; OLS vs IV-2SLS (Figure 24.19): IV-2SLS indicates a stronger negative effect of a family CEO than OLS.

References