16. Competitive Screening Games
16. Competitive Screening Games
本章导读 筛选博弈同样属于逆向选择,但与信号博弈相反:信号博弈中有信息的一方先动,筛选博弈中我们翻转时序,让无信息的一方先动——无信息方先设计方案,以使其所预期的(有信息方的)反应得以实现。本章关注竞争性市场版本,重点是:纯策略均衡的候选是什么、以及为何可能不存在纯策略均衡。§16.1 MWG 劳动力市场:工人效用 \(U=w-c(t,\theta)\)(\(t\) 为纯筛选用、无生产率的任务),单交叉 \(c_{t\theta}<0\),两企业竞争且均衡利润为零。完全信息下高效率结果 \((w_L^\star=\theta_L,t_L^\star=0),(w_H^\star=\theta_H,t_H^\star=0)\)(事实 16.1);不完全信息下用六个结果逐步证明纯策略均衡只能是最低成本分离(\(w_H^\star=\theta_H,w_L^\star=\theta_L,t_L^\star=0,t_H^\star=\hat t\)),但在 \(\phi\to1\) 或特定无差异曲线形状(交叉补贴)下,该唯一候选会被混同偏离摧毁,从而不存在纯策略均衡。§16.2 JR 保险市场:平行地用六个结果证明唯一候选是最大保额分离(\(B_H^\star=L,p_H^\star=\pi_H L,B_L^\star=\hat B,p_L^\star=\pi_L\hat B\)),\(\phi\to1\) 时同样可能不存在。所有图(图 17–27)均已转述。
16. Competitive Screening Games
Overview The screening game still pertains to adverse selection, but is the opposite of the signaling game: in signaling the informed side moves first, while in screening we flip the timing and let the uninformed side move first — the uninformed side designs a menu so that the anticipated response (by the informed side) results. This chapter focuses on the competitive-market version, with emphasis on: what the candidates for a pure-strategy equilibrium are, and why a pure-strategy equilibrium may not exist. §16.1 the MWG labor market: workers' utility \(U=w-c(t,\theta)\) (\(t\) a pure-screening, non-productive task), single-crossing \(c_{t\theta}<0\), two firms competing with zero equilibrium profits. Under complete information the efficient outcome \((w_L^\star=\theta_L,t_L^\star=0),(w_H^\star=\theta_H,t_H^\star=0)\) (Fact 16.1); under incomplete information, six results prove step by step that the only pure-strategy equilibrium can be the least-cost separating one (\(w_H^\star=\theta_H,w_L^\star=\theta_L,t_L^\star=0,t_H^\star=\hat t\)), but under \(\phi\to1\) or particular indifference-curve shapes (cross-subsidizing) this unique candidate is destroyed by a pooling deviation, so no pure-strategy equilibrium exists. §16.2 the JR insurance market: in parallel, six results prove the only candidate is the most-coverage separating one (\(B_H^\star=L,p_H^\star=\pi_H L,B_L^\star=\hat B,p_L^\star=\pi_L\hat B\)), with possible non-existence when \(\phi\to1\). All figures (17–27) are paraphrased.
筛选博弈仍属于逆向选择。与有信息一方先动的信号博弈不同,筛选博弈翻转了时序,让无信息一方先动——其先动方式使其所预期的(有信息方)反应得以实现。本节聚焦竞争性市场版本,欲弄清纯策略均衡的候选是什么,以及为何可能不存在纯策略均衡。我们同样会在 MWG 劳动力市场与 JR 保险市场两种设定下展开,二者体现相同的逻辑、结果也非常相似。
16.1 MWG 劳动力市场问题
16.1.1 设定 / Set-up
The screening game still pertains to adverse selection. Unlike the signaling game where the informed side moves first, the screening game flips the timing and lets the uninformed side move first — in a way such that the anticipated outcome (the response by the informed side) results. This section focuses on the competitive-market version, wanting to understand what the candidates for a pure-strategy equilibrium are, and why no pure-strategy equilibrium may exist. We again work in both the MWG labor market and the JR insurance market, which illustrate the same rationale and have very similar results.
16.1 MWG Labor Market Problem
16.1.1 Set-up
设定与时序 / Set-up and timing 1. 工人效用 \(U=w-c(t,\theta)\),其中 \(c(0,\theta)=0\),\(c\) 关于 \(t\) 递增且凸。(a) \(t\) 是企业作为工资报价一部分所要求的任务;任务仅用于筛选,对企业没有生产价值。(b) 单交叉性质 \(c_{t\theta}<0\)(高类型边际成本更低),蕴含 \(c_\theta<0\)。(c) \(\theta_H>\theta_L>0\) 两类型,概率分别为 \(\phi\) 与 \(1-\phi\)。2. 两家企业相互竞争。 (a) 竞争需 \(\ge2\) 家企业;(b) 两家足以完成证明,故不失一般性设只有两家;(c) 记 \(j\) 为做得不更好的那家,\(\pi_j\le\tfrac12\pi_{industry}\);(d) 均衡中无企业负利润,\(\pi_1,\pi_2\ge0\)。3. 时序:(a) 自然为工人抽取类型,工人私下得知 \(\theta\)(生产率);(b) 企业给出包含相应任务的工资方案;(c) 工人选择最优报价接受。1. Workers' utility \(U=w-c(t,\theta)\), with \(c(0,\theta)=0\) and \(c\) increasing and convex in \(t\). (a) \(t\) is the task required by the firm as part of the wage offer; the task is only for screening and is not productive to the firm. (b) Single-crossing \(c_{t\theta}<0\) (high types have lower marginal cost), which implies \(c_\theta<0\). (c) \(\theta_H>\theta_L>0\) are the two types, with probabilities \(\phi\) and \(1-\phi\). 2. Two firms compete with each other. (a) Competition needs \(\ge2\) firms; (b) two firms are enough for the proofs, so WLOG there are only two; (c) let firm \(j\) denote the firm not doing better, \(\pi_j\le\tfrac12\pi_{industry}\); (d) in equilibrium no firm operates at negative profits, \(\pi_1,\pi_2\ge0\). 3. Timing: (a) nature chooses types for workers, who privately learn \(\theta\) (productivity); (b) firms offer wage packages including the required task associated with that wage; (c) workers choose the best offer to accept.
纯策略均衡的两种形态 / Two forms of pure-strategy equilibrium (a) 分离纯策略均衡由以下刻画:(i) 企业 \(i\)(\(i\in\{1,2\}\))给出两份分离报价的方案 \(\psi^i=\{\psi_L^\star=(w_L^\star,t_L^\star),\,\psi_H^\star=(w_H^\star,t_H^\star)\}\);(ii) 工人行动为 \(\{\)接受企业 1 的 \(\psi_L^\star\),接受企业 1 的 \(\psi_H^\star\),接受企业 2 的 \(\psi_L^\star\),接受企业 2 的 \(\psi_H^\star\}\)。(b) 混同纯策略均衡由以下刻画:(i) 企业 \(i\) 给出唯一报价 \(\psi^i=\{\psi_p^\star=(w_p^\star,t_p^\star)\}\);(ii) 工人行动为 \(\{\)接受企业 1 的 \(\psi_p^\star\),接受企业 2 的 \(\psi_p^\star\}\)。(a) A separating pure-strategy equilibrium is characterized by: (i) firm \(i\) (\(i\in\{1,2\}\)) offers a package of two separate offers \(\psi^i=\{\psi_L^\star=(w_L^\star,t_L^\star),\,\psi_H^\star=(w_H^\star,t_H^\star)\}\); (ii) the workers' action is \(\{\)Accept \(\psi_L^\star\) of firm 1, Accept \(\psi_H^\star\) of firm 1, Accept \(\psi_L^\star\) of firm 2, Accept \(\psi_H^\star\) of firm 2$}\(. **(b) A pooling pure-strategy equilibrium** is characterized by: (i) firm \)i$ offers one offer \(\psi^i=\{\psi_p^\star=(w_p^\star,t_p^\star)\}\); (ii) the workers' action is \(\{\)Accept \(\psi_p^\star\) of firm 1, Accept \(\psi_p^\star\) of firm 2$}$.
图 17 / Figure 17(两类型无差异曲线,已转述 / indifference curves, paraphrased) 在 \(t\)–\(w\) 平面(横轴任务 \(t\)、纵轴工资 \(w\)):(a) 两类型无差异曲线都向上倾斜;(b) 向左上方(更少任务、更高工资)更受偏好;(c) \(c(t,\theta)\) 关于 \(t\) 的凸性使无差异曲线凸;(d) 因 \(c_{t\theta}<0\),在每个 \(t\) 处低类型 \(\theta_L\) 的无差异曲线比高类型 \(\theta_H\) 更陡。其中 \(U_H\equiv\{(t,w)\mid U_H=w-c(t,\theta_H)\}\)、\(U_L\equiv\{(t,w)\mid U_L=w-c(t,\theta_L)\}\)。In the \(t\)–\(w\) plane (horizontal axis task \(t\), vertical axis wage \(w\)): (a) both types' indifference curves slope up; (b) up-left (less task, more wage) is favorable; (c) the convexity of \(c(t,\theta)\) in \(t\) makes the curves convex; (d) since \(c_{t\theta}<0\), at each \(t\) the low type \(\theta_L\)'s curve is steeper than the high type \(\theta_H\)'s. Here \(U_H\equiv\{(t,w)\mid U_H=w-c(t,\theta_H)\}\) and \(U_L\equiv\{(t,w)\mid U_L=w-c(t,\theta_L)\}\).
16.1.2 完全信息下的讨论 / Discussion on complete information
仅在本小节假设类型对双方都是公开信息,则有如下事实。
16.1.2 Discussion on complete information
Suppose, only for this subsection, that the type information is publicly known by both sides. Then we have the following fact.
事实 16.1(完全信息均衡)/ Fact 16.1 (perfect-information equilibrium) 在完全信息均衡中,\((w_L^\star=\theta_L,\,t_L^\star=0)\) 且 \((w_H^\star=\theta_H,\,t_H^\star=0)\)。In equilibrium with perfect information, \((w_L^\star=\theta_L,\,t_L^\star=0)\) and \((w_H^\star=\theta_H,\,t_H^\star=0)\).
证明 / Proof 第一步:证 \(w_L^\star=\theta_L\)、\(w_H^\star=\theta_H\)。 反设不然。因企业不会负利润运营,故对企业 \(i\) 至少有 \(w_L^\star<\theta_L\) 或 \(w_H^\star<\theta_H\) 之一成立。不失一般性设 \(w_H^\star<\theta_H\),则另一家企业 \(j\ne i\) 可偏离、开出 \(w_H'=w_H^\star+\varepsilon\)(\(\varepsilon\in(0,\theta_H-w_H^\star)\)),把 \(\theta_H\) 工人从 \(i\) 抢走并赚取严格为正的利润;\(\varepsilon\) 足够小时该偏离对 \(j\) 有利,矛盾。Step 1: prove \(w_L^\star=\theta_L\) and \(w_H^\star=\theta_H\). Suppose not. Since firms won't operate at negative profits, for firm \(i\) at least one of \(w_L^\star<\theta_L\) or \(w_H^\star<\theta_H\) holds. WLOG assume \(w_H^\star<\theta_H\); then the other firm \(j\ne i\) can deviate by offering \(w_H'=w_H^\star+\varepsilon\) (\(\varepsilon\in(0,\theta_H-w_H^\star)\)), stealing the \(\theta_H\) worker from \(i\) and earning strictly positive profit. For small enough \(\varepsilon\) this deviation is profitable for \(j\), a contradiction.
第二步:证 \(t_L^\star=0\)、\(t_H^\star=0\)。 反设不然。不失一般性设企业 \(i\) 要求 \(\psi^\star=(w_H^\star=\theta_H,\,t_H^\star>0)\)。则企业 \(j\) 可偏离、开出 \(\psi'=(w_H'=\theta_H-\varepsilon,\,t_H'=t_H^\star-\delta)\)(\(\varepsilon,\delta>0\));\(\varepsilon\) 足够小时 \(\theta_H\) 工人更偏好 \(\psi'\) 而全部转投 \(j\),使 \(j\) 赚取严格为正的利润,故偏离对 \(j\) 有利,矛盾。\(\blacksquare\)Step 2: show \(t_L^\star=0\) and \(t_H^\star=0\). Suppose not. WLOG assume firm \(i\) requires \(\psi^\star=(w_H^\star=\theta_H,\,t_H^\star>0)\). Then firm \(j\) can deviate by offering \(\psi'=(w_H'=\theta_H-\varepsilon,\,t_H'=t_H^\star-\delta)\) (\(\varepsilon,\delta>0\)); for small enough \(\varepsilon\), \(\theta_H\) workers prefer \(\psi'\) and all switch to \(j\), making \(j\) earn strictly positive profit, so the deviation is profitable for \(j\), a contradiction. \(\blacksquare\)
注 16.1 / Remark 16.1 完全信息博弈的均衡 \((w_L^\star=\theta_L,t_L^\star=0),(w_H^\star=\theta_H,t_H^\star=0)\) 非常有效:既无需筛选,企业便不要求任何无意义的任务,并对两类型都给出正确工资。但当不存在完全信息时,筛选变得有意义,并伴随一项社会福利成本。The perfect-information equilibrium \((w_L^\star=\theta_L,t_L^\star=0),(w_H^\star=\theta_H,t_H^\star=0)\) is very efficient: since there is no need for screening, the firm requires no meaningless task for either type and offers correct wages to both. But when there is no perfect information, screening becomes meaningful, and there is a social welfare cost associated with screening.
16.1.3 不完全信息博弈的六个结果 / Six results in the incomplete-information game
现设 \(\theta\) 仅私下揭示给每个工人。则事实 16.1 所描述的均衡不再是均衡,因为低类型有激励伪装成高类型,从而使企业亏钱。下面刻画纯策略均衡的候选——它们必须满足以下六个结果。
16.1.3 Six results in the incomplete-information game
Now suppose \(\theta\) is only privately revealed to each worker. Then the equilibrium described in Fact 16.1 is no longer an equilibrium, because the low type has an incentive to pretend to be the high type, which causes the firm to lose money. Below we characterize the candidates for a pure-strategy equilibrium — they must satisfy the following six results.
结果 1 / Result 1 在任何纯策略均衡中,两家企业的期望支付都为零。In any pure-strategy equilibrium, the expected payoff of both firms is zero.
证明 / Proof 反设不然,则行业利润严格为正。以分离均衡为例,记均衡报价为 \((w_L^\star,t_L^\star)\) 与 \((w_H^\star,t_H^\star)\)(混同时取 \(w_L^\star=w_H^\star\)、\(t_L^\star=t_H^\star\))。企业 \(j\) 可偏离、对每类型加价 \(\varepsilon>0\) 开出 \((w_L^\star+\varepsilon,t_L^\star)\) 与 \((w_H^\star+\varepsilon,t_H^\star)\),从 \(i\) 抢走全部工人与利润;\(\varepsilon\) 足够小时偏离有利,矛盾。\(\blacksquare\)Suppose not; then industry profits are strictly positive. Take the separating equilibrium as an example, with equilibrium offers \((w_L^\star,t_L^\star)\) and \((w_H^\star,t_H^\star)\) (for pooling, \(w_L^\star=w_H^\star\), \(t_L^\star=t_H^\star\)). Firm \(j\) can deviate by adding \(\varepsilon>0\) to each type, offering \((w_L^\star+\varepsilon,t_L^\star)\) and \((w_H^\star+\varepsilon,t_H^\star)\), stealing all workers and profits from \(i\); for small enough \(\varepsilon\) the deviation is profitable, a contradiction. \(\blacksquare\)
结果 2 / Result 2 不存在混同均衡。No pooling equilibrium exists.
证明(图 18)/ Proof (Figure 18) 图 18(已转述):设点 \(E\) 表示混同均衡,即 \((w=\mathbb{E}[\theta],\,t=t_p^\star)\),落在 \(w=\mathbb{E}[\theta]\) 高度、两类型无差异曲线在此相切。则其右上方"蓝色阴影区"内任一点(特别是点 \(p\))都是企业 \(j\) 的有利偏离:若企业 \(i\) 开出点 \(E\),企业 \(j\) 改开点 \(p=(w_p',t_p')\)(更高工资、更多任务),低类型宁愿留在 \(E\),而所有高类型转投 \(j\);因 \(w_p'<\theta_H\),\(j\) 赚严格正利润,与结果 1 矛盾。\(\blacksquare\)Figure 18 (paraphrased): let point \(E\) denote the pooling equilibrium, i.e. \((w=\mathbb{E}[\theta],\,t=t_p^\star)\), at height \(w=\mathbb{E}[\theta]\) where the two indifference curves are tangent. Then any point in the upper-right "blue shaded area" (in particular point \(p\)) is a profitable deviation for firm \(j\): if firm \(i\) offers point \(E\), firm \(j\) offers point \(p=(w_p',t_p')\) (higher wage, more task), the low type prefers to stay at \(E\) while all high types switch to \(j\); since \(w_p'<\theta_H\), \(j\) makes strictly positive profit, contradicting Result 1. \(\blacksquare\)
结果 3 / Result 3 在任何分离均衡中,工人获得等于自身生产率的工资,即 \(w_H^\star=\theta_H\)、\(w_L^\star=\theta_L\)。此结果强于结果 1:它要求企业在两类型上分别零利润,从而排除"一类型赚、另一类型亏、净利润为零"(结果 1 未排除此情形)。In any separating equilibrium, a worker gets a wage equal to their own productivity, i.e. \(w_H^\star=\theta_H\), \(w_L^\star=\theta_L\). This is stronger than Result 1: it requires firms to earn zero profit over each type separately, ruling out the case where firms earn positive profit on one type and lose on the other with net profit zero (not ruled out by Result 1).
证明(图 19)/ Proof (Figure 19) 第一步:设 \(w_L^\star<\theta_L\),则低类型有利可图。企业 \(j\) 可偏离开出 \(w_L'=w_L^\star+\varepsilon\)(\(\varepsilon\in(0,\theta_L-w_L^\star)\))。若高类型转投 \(j\),\(j\) 赚严格正利润;若高类型还跑来 \(j\) 伪装成低类型,\(j\) 赚得更多。故偏离有利,矛盾,得 \(w_L^\star\ge\theta_L\)。第二步:由结果 1 净利润为零,故 \(w_L^\star\le\theta_L\) 蕴含 \(w_H^\star\ge\theta_H\)。设 \(w_H^\star<\theta_H\),则图 19(已转述)中"蓝色阴影区"内任一点 \(p\) 是有利偏离(同结果 2 证法),矛盾。故 \(w_H^\star=\theta_H\)、\(w_L^\star=\theta_L\)。\(\blacksquare\)Step 1: suppose \(w_L^\star<\theta_L\), then the low type is profitable. Firm \(j\) can deviate by offering \(w_L'=w_L^\star+\varepsilon\) (\(\varepsilon\in(0,\theta_L-w_L^\star)\)). If high types switch to \(j\), \(j\) makes strictly positive profit; if high types also show up at \(j\) pretending to be low, \(j\) makes even more. So the deviation is profitable, a contradiction, giving \(w_L^\star\ge\theta_L\). Step 2: by Result 1 net profit is zero, so \(w_L^\star\le\theta_L\) implies \(w_H^\star\ge\theta_H\). Suppose \(w_H^\star<\theta_H\); then in Figure 19 (paraphrased) any point \(p\) in the "blue shaded area" is a profitable deviation (same argument as Result 2), a contradiction. So \(w_H^\star=\theta_H\), \(w_L^\star=\theta_L\). \(\blacksquare\)
结果 4 / Result 4 在任何分离均衡中,\(t_L^\star=0\)。In any separating equilibrium, \(t_L^\star=0\).
证明(图 20)/ Proof (Figure 20) 反设 \(t_L^\star>0\),则图 20(已转述)中"蓝色阴影区"内任一点 \(p\)(更高工资、更少任务)是企业 \(j\) 的有利偏离,矛盾。故 \(t_L^\star=0\)。\(\blacksquare\)Suppose not, i.e. \(t_L^\star>0\); then in Figure 20 (paraphrased) any point \(p\) in the "blue shaded area" (higher wage, less task) is a profitable deviation for firm \(j\), a contradiction. So \(t_L^\star=0\). \(\blacksquare\)
定义 \(\hat t\) 满足下式,即"取高类型工资所需的最少任务",使低类型没有激励伪装成高类型:
Define \(\hat t\) by the equation below, the minimum amount of required task for taking the high-type wage such that the low type has no incentive to pretend to be the high type:
$$ \theta_L-c(0,\theta_L)=\theta_H-c(\hat t,\theta_L) $$
结果 5 / Result 5 在任何分离均衡中,\(t_H^\star=\hat t\)。In any separating equilibrium, \(t_H^\star=\hat t\).
证明(图 21)/ Proof (Figure 21) 反设 \(t_H^\star>\hat t\),则图 21(已转述)中"蓝色阴影区"内任一点 \(p\)(在不诱使低类型模仿的前提下,给高类型更少任务)是企业 \(j\) 的有利偏离,矛盾。故 \(t_H^\star=\hat t\)。\(\blacksquare\)Suppose not, i.e. \(t_H^\star>\hat t\); then in Figure 21 (paraphrased) any point \(p\) in the "blue shaded area" (less task for the high type while still not tempting the low type to mimic) is a profitable deviation for firm \(j\), a contradiction. So \(t_H^\star=\hat t\). \(\blacksquare\)
结果 6(前五结果的总结)/ Result 6 (summary of the previous five) 若存在纯策略均衡,则:它必为分离均衡;\(w_H^\star=\theta_H\)、\(w_L^\star=\theta_L\);\(t_H^\star=\hat t\)、\(t_L^\star=0\),其中 \(\hat t\) 满足 \(\theta_L-c(0,\theta_L)=\theta_H-c(\hat t,\theta_L)\)。这意味着唯一可能的纯策略均衡是最低成本分离均衡。If a pure-strategy equilibrium exists, then: it must be a separating equilibrium; \(w_H^\star=\theta_H\), \(w_L^\star=\theta_L\); \(t_H^\star=\hat t\), \(t_L^\star=0\), where \(\hat t\) satisfies \(\theta_L-c(0,\theta_L)=\theta_H-c(\hat t,\theta_L)\). This means the only possible pure-strategy equilibrium is the least-cost separating one.
16.1.4 纯策略均衡可能不存在 / Possible non-existence of pure-strategy equilibrium
由上面的讨论,我们已确立唯一的候选是最低成本分离纯策略均衡。然而在某些条件下,这唯一候选会被混同偏离摧毁。下面两种情形即为例子。
情形一:\(\phi\to1\)。 大多数工人是高类型,故混同工资 \(\mathbb{E}[\theta]\) 几乎等于分离的高类型工资 \(\theta_H\)。企业 \(j\) 可偏离、开出一个吸引所有工人转投的混同方案而赚严格正利润。图 22(已转述):蓝色阴影区内任一点(特别是点 \(p\))是企业 \(j\) 的有利偏离,与"分离均衡 \((w_L^\star,t_L^\star),(w_H^\star,t_H^\star)\)"矛盾。故此时不存在纯策略均衡。
情形二:\(\phi\) 不很接近 1。 仍可能通过交叉补贴使混同均衡摧毁最低成本分离均衡:企业 \(j\) 偏离开出一混同方案,在低类型上亏钱、在高类型上赚更多钱,从而吸引所有工人转投并赚严格正利润。图 23(已转述):点 \(p\) 是有利偏离。故即便 \(\phi\) 不接近 1,对特定形状的无差异曲线,仍可能不存在纯策略均衡。
16.1.4 Possible non-existence of pure-strategy equilibrium
By the discussion above, we have established that the only candidate is the least-cost separating pure-strategy equilibrium. However, under some conditions this unique candidate is destroyed by a pooling equilibrium. The following two cases are examples.
Case 1: \(\phi\to1\). The majority of workers are high type, so the pooling wage \(\mathbb{E}[\theta]\) is almost the same as the separating high-type wage \(\theta_H\). Firm \(j\) can deviate by offering a pooling package that attracts all workers to switch and makes strictly positive profits. Figure 22 (paraphrased): any point in the blue shaded area (in particular point \(p\)) is a profitable deviation for firm \(j\), contradicting the separating equilibrium \((w_L^\star,t_L^\star),(w_H^\star,t_H^\star)\). So in this case there is no pure-strategy equilibrium.
Case 2: \(\phi\) not very close to 1. A pooling equilibrium can still destroy the least-cost separating one via cross-subsidizing: firm \(j\) deviates by offering a pooling package that loses money on the low type and makes more money on the high type, attracting all workers to switch and earning strictly positive profits. Figure 23 (paraphrased): point \(p\) is a profitable deviation. So even when \(\phi\) is not close to 1, for a particular shape of indifference curves there may still be no pure-strategy equilibrium.
16.2 JR 保险市场问题
针对筛选博弈,重新考察 JR 保险市场。
16.2.1 设定 / Set-up
16.2 JR Insurance Market Problem
Let's revisit the JR insurance market problem for the screening game.
16.2.1 Set-up
设定与时序 / Set-up and timing 两种风险类型(发生损失 \(L\) 的概率):\(0<\pi_L<\pi_H<1\);两类型收入均为 \(y\)。低风险类型概率 \(\phi\)、高风险类型概率 \(1-\phi\)。保额 \(B\) 为损失 \(L\) 发生时保险公司支付的金额。设有两家企业相互竞争。时序:1. 自然抽取类型并向每位客户私下揭示 \(\pi\);2. 保险公司向客户提供合约;3. 客户选择接受最优合约。类型 \(i\in\{L,H\}\) 的效用见下式,\(U(\cdot)\) 为两类型共享的递增凹函数。Two risk types (probability of suffering loss \(L\)): \(0<\pi_L<\pi_H<1\); both types have income \(y\). The low type has probability \(\phi\) and the high type \(1-\phi\). Coverage \(B\) is the amount paid by the insurance company when the loss \(L\) takes place. Suppose there are two firms competing. Timing: 1. Nature chooses the type and privately reveals \(\pi\) to each customer; 2. insurance firms offer contracts to customers; 3. customers choose to accept the best contract. The utility of type \(i\in\{L,H\}\) is below, where \(U(\cdot)\) is an increasing concave function shared by both types.
$$ U_i(B,p)=\pi_i\cdot U(y-p-L+B)+(1-\pi_i)\cdot U(y-p) $$
图 24 / Figure 24(两类型无差异曲线,已转述 / indifference curves, paraphrased) 在 \(B\)–\(p\) 平面:(1) 两类型无差异曲线都向上倾斜;(2) 向右下方(更低保费、更高保额)更受偏好;(3) \(U(\cdot)\) 的凹性使无差异曲线凹;(4) 因 \(\pi_H>\pi_L\) 且 \(U\) 凹,在每个 \(B\) 处高风险 \(\pi_H\) 的无差异曲线比低风险 \(\pi_L\) 更陡;(5) 精算公平边界:"High Risks" 线斜率 \(\pi_H\)、"Low Risks" 线斜率 \(\pi_L\),上方区域对企业有利、下方对客户有利,混合类型的精算公平保单落在两线之间。In the \(B\)–\(p\) plane: (1) both types' indifference curves slope up; (2) lower-right (less premium, more coverage) is favorable; (3) the concavity of \(U(\cdot)\) makes the curves concave; (4) since \(\pi_H>\pi_L\) and \(U\) is concave, at each \(B\) the high-risk \(\pi_H\) curve is steeper than the low-risk \(\pi_L\); (5) actuarially fair boundary: the "High Risks" line has slope \(\pi_H\), the "Low Risks" line has slope \(\pi_L\), above is favorable to firms and below to customers, with the mixture's fair policy between the two lines.
16.2.2 不完全信息博弈的六个结果 / Six results in the incomplete-information game
刻画不完全信息下纯策略均衡的候选——它们必须满足以下六个结果。
16.2.2 Six results in the incomplete-information game
We characterize the candidates for a pure-strategy equilibrium under incomplete information — they must satisfy the following six results.
结果 1 / Result 1 在任何纯策略均衡中,两家企业的期望支付都为零。In any pure-strategy equilibrium, the expected payoff of both firms is zero.
证明 / Proof 反设不然,则行业利润严格为正。第一步(混同情形):记均衡报价为 \((B_p^\star,p_p^\star)\),企业 \(j\) 可偏离、开出 \((B_p^\star+\varepsilon,p_p^\star)\)(\(\varepsilon>0\))从 \(i\) 抢走全部客户与利润,\(\varepsilon\) 足够小时有利,矛盾。第二步(分离情形):记均衡报价为 \((B_L^\star,p_L^\star)\) 与 \((B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\)。由分离定义,\(U_L(B_L^\star,p_L^\star)\ge U_L(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\) 且 \(U_H(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\ge U_H(B_L^\star,p_L^\star)\),且至少一式严格(否则见第一步)。不失一般性设 \(U_L(B_L^\star,p_L^\star)>U_L(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\)。则取足够小的 \(\varepsilon,\delta>0\)(\(\varepsilon\) 更小),企业 \(j\) 偏离开出 \((B_L^\star+\varepsilon,p_L^\star)\) 与 \((B_H^\star+\delta,p_H^\star)\),使 \(U_L(B_L^\star+\varepsilon,p_L^\star)\ge U_L(B_H^\star+\delta,p_H^\star)\)、\(U_H(B_H^\star+\delta,p_H^\star)\ge U_H(B_L^\star+\varepsilon,p_L^\star)\),从 \(i\) 抢走全部客户与利润。该有利偏离使原报价不成其为均衡。\(\blacksquare\)Suppose not; then industry profits are strictly positive. Step 1 (pooling case): denote the equilibrium offer \((B_p^\star,p_p^\star)\); firm \(j\) can deviate by offering \((B_p^\star+\varepsilon,p_p^\star)\) (\(\varepsilon>0\)), stealing all customers and profits from \(i\), profitable for small \(\varepsilon\), a contradiction. Step 2 (separating case): denote the equilibrium offers \((B_L^\star,p_L^\star)\) and \((B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\). By the definition of separating, \(U_L(B_L^\star,p_L^\star)\ge U_L(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\) and \(U_H(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\ge U_H(B_L^\star,p_L^\star)\), with at least one strict (else see Step 1). WLOG \(U_L(B_L^\star,p_L^\star)>U_L(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\). Then for small enough \(\varepsilon,\delta>0\) (\(\varepsilon\) even smaller), firm \(j\) deviates to \((B_L^\star+\varepsilon,p_L^\star)\) and \((B_H^\star+\delta,p_H^\star)\), making \(U_L(B_L^\star+\varepsilon,p_L^\star)\ge U_L(B_H^\star+\delta,p_H^\star)\) and \(U_H(B_H^\star+\delta,p_H^\star)\ge U_H(B_L^\star+\varepsilon,p_L^\star)\), stealing all customers and profits from \(i\). This profitable deviation makes the previous offers not an equilibrium. \(\blacksquare\)
结果 2 / Result 2 不存在混同均衡。No pooling equilibrium exists.
证明(图 25)/ Proof (Figure 25) 图 25(已转述):设点 \(E\) 表示混同均衡(落在混合精算公平线 \(\mathbb{E}[\pi]\) 与价格 \(p^\star\)、保额 \(B^\star\) 处,两类型无差异曲线在此相切)。则总存在一点 \(p\) 是企业 \(j\) 的有利偏离(位于低风险无差异曲线 \(U_L\) 与高风险线之间的"蓝色阴影区",吸引低风险者而排斥高风险者),使 \(E\) 不成其为均衡。\(\blacksquare\)Figure 25 (paraphrased): let point \(E\) denote the pooling equilibrium (at the mixed actuarially-fair line \(\mathbb{E}[\pi]\), price \(p^\star\), coverage \(B^\star\), where the two indifference curves are tangent). Then there always exists a point \(p\) that is a profitable deviation for firm \(j\) (in the "blue shaded area" between the low-risk curve \(U_L\) and the high-risk line, attracting low risks while repelling high risks), making \(E\) not an equilibrium. \(\blacksquare\)
结果 3 / Result 3 在任何分离均衡中,\(U_H^\star\ge U_H(L,\pi_H L)\)。In any separating equilibrium, \(U_H^\star\ge U_H(L,\pi_H L)\).
证明 / Proof 反设不然,则分离均衡中高风险主体获得的效用低于按精算公平价全额投保。企业 \(j\) 可偏离、开出 \((L,(\pi_H+\varepsilon)L)\)(\(\varepsilon>0\))从 \(i\) 抢走全部高风险客户;\(\varepsilon\) 足够小时对高风险有吸引力,偏离有利,矛盾。\(\blacksquare\)Suppose not; then in the separating equilibrium the high-risk agents get utility less than from full insurance at the actuarially fair rate. Firm \(j\) can deviate by offering \((L,(\pi_H+\varepsilon)L)\) (\(\varepsilon>0\)), stealing all high-risk customers from \(i\); for small enough \(\varepsilon\) it is attractive to high risks, so the deviation is profitable, a contradiction. \(\blacksquare\)
结果 4 / Result 4 在任何分离均衡中,\(p_L^\star=\pi_L B_L^\star\)。In any separating equilibrium, \(p_L^\star=\pi_L B_L^\star\).
证明 / Proof 反设 \(p_L^\star>\pi_L B_L^\star\),则企业 \(j\) 可偏离、开出 \((B_L^\star,p_L^\star-\varepsilon)\)(\(\varepsilon\in(0,p_L^\star-\pi_L B_L^\star)\))从 \(i\) 抢走全部低风险客户;对低风险有吸引力,偏离有利,矛盾。\(\blacksquare\)Suppose not, i.e. \(p_L^\star>\pi_L B_L^\star\); then firm \(j\) can deviate by offering \((B_L^\star,p_L^\star-\varepsilon)\) (\(\varepsilon\in(0,p_L^\star-\pi_L B_L^\star)\)), stealing all low-risk customers from \(i\); it is attractive to low risks, so the deviation is profitable, a contradiction. \(\blacksquare\)
结果 5 / Result 5 在任何分离均衡中,\(B_H^\star=L\) 且 \(p_H^\star=\pi_H L\)。In any separating equilibrium, \(B_H^\star=L\) and \(p_H^\star=\pi_H L\).
证明 / Proof
第一步:证 \(B_H^\star=L\)。 反设 \(B_H^\star
定义 \(\hat B\) 满足下式,即"按低风险费率投保时的最高保额",使高风险主体没有激励伪装成低风险:
Define \(\hat B\) by the equation below, the highest amount of coverage at the low-risk insurance rate such that the high type has no incentive to pretend to be the low type:
$$ U_H(L,\pi_H L)=U_H(\hat B,\pi_L\hat B) $$
结果 6 / Result 6 在任何分离均衡中,\(B_L^\star=\hat B\)。In any separating equilibrium, \(B_L^\star=\hat B\).
证明(图 26)/ Proof (Figure 26) 反设 \(B_L^\star<\hat B\),则图 26(已转述)中"蓝色阴影区"内任一点 \(p\)(在不诱使高风险模仿的前提下,给低风险更高保额)是企业 \(j\) 的有利偏离,矛盾。故 \(B_L^\star=\hat B\)。\(\blacksquare\)Suppose not, i.e. \(B_L^\star<\hat B\); then in Figure 26 (paraphrased) any point \(p\) in the "blue shaded area" (higher coverage for low risks while still not tempting high risks to mimic) is a profitable deviation for firm \(j\), a contradiction. So \(B_L^\star=\hat B\). \(\blacksquare\)
六个结果的总结 / Summary of the six results 若存在纯策略均衡,则:它必为分离均衡;\(p_H^\star=\pi_H L\)、\(p_L^\star=\pi_L\hat B\),其中 \(\hat B\) 满足 \(U_H(L,\pi_H L)=U_H(\hat B,\pi_L\hat B)\);\(B_H^\star=L\)、\(B_L^\star=\hat B\)。这意味着唯一可能的纯策略均衡是最大保额分离均衡。这里"最大保额"指在两类型被完全分离的条件下两者都享有最高保额(由结果 5、6 刻画),可解读为另一种形式的"最低成本"——其中成本是保额缩减带来的福利损失。If a pure-strategy equilibrium exists, then: it must be a separating equilibrium; \(p_H^\star=\pi_H L\), \(p_L^\star=\pi_L\hat B\), where \(\hat B\) satisfies \(U_H(L,\pi_H L)=U_H(\hat B,\pi_L\hat B)\); \(B_H^\star=L\), \(B_L^\star=\hat B\). This means the only possible pure-strategy equilibrium is the most-coverage separating one. Here "most-coverage" means both types enjoy the most coverage conditional on being perfectly separated (characterized by Results 5 and 6), and can be interpreted as another form of "least-cost" where the cost is the welfare loss from reduced insurance coverage.
16.2.3 纯策略均衡可能不存在 / Possible non-existence of pure-strategy equilibrium
由上面的讨论,唯一候选是最大保额分离纯策略均衡。然而在某些条件下,该唯一候选会被混同均衡摧毁。
例 16.1:\(\phi\to1\)。 大多数客户是低风险类型,故混同风险 \(\mathbb{E}[\pi]\) 几乎等于分离的低风险 \(\pi_L\)。企业 \(j\) 可偏离、开出一个吸引所有客户转投的混同方案而赚严格正利润。图 27(已转述):蓝色阴影区内任一点(特别是点 \(p\))是企业 \(j\) 的有利偏离,与"分离均衡 \((B_L^\star,p_L^\star),(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\)"矛盾。故此时不存在纯策略均衡。
16.2.3 Possible non-existence of pure-strategy equilibrium
By the discussion above, the only candidate is the most-coverage separating pure-strategy equilibrium. However, under some conditions this unique candidate is destroyed by a pooling equilibrium.
Example 16.1: \(\phi\to1\). The majority of customers are low-risk, so the pooling risk \(\mathbb{E}[\pi]\) is almost the same as the separating low-risk \(\pi_L\). Firm \(j\) can deviate by offering a pooling package that attracts all customers to switch and makes strictly positive profits. Figure 27 (paraphrased): any point in the blue shaded area (in particular point \(p\)) is a profitable deviation for firm \(j\), contradicting the separating equilibrium \((B_L^\star,p_L^\star),(B_H^\star,p_H^\star)\). So in this case there is no pure-strategy equilibrium.
参考文献 / References
- Mas-Colell, A., Whinston, M. D., & Green, J. R. (1995). Microeconomic Theory.(竞争性筛选与纯策略均衡的不存在性)
- Jehle, G. A., & Reny, P. J. (2011). Advanced Microeconomic Theory, 3rd Ed.(保险市场的筛选博弈)
- Rothschild, M., & Stiglitz, J. (1976). Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets.(竞争性保险市场筛选的经典文献)
References
- Mas-Colell, A., Whinston, M. D., & Green, J. R. (1995). Microeconomic Theory. (competitive screening and the non-existence of pure-strategy equilibrium)
- Jehle, G. A., & Reny, P. J. (2011). Advanced Microeconomic Theory, 3rd Ed. (the screening game in the insurance market)
- Rothschild, M., & Stiglitz, J. (1976). Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets. (the classic reference on competitive insurance-market screening)